Showing posts with label south end. Show all posts
Showing posts with label south end. Show all posts

Monday, October 27, 2008

The Almost Daily 2¢ - Dodgy Dodging

Today I want to draw your attention to an article published in the Sunday Boston Globe magazine entitled “Trapped” detailing the recent activities of “homeowners” and housing speculators in the Boston area.

While initially appearing to frame the article as a peer into the world of trouble that has befallen scores of distressed homeowners suffering through today’s tough housing market, the Globe, in typical fashion, instead chooses to present yet another advertiser-driven propaganda piece glorifying the exploits of various real estate flippers.

Probably the most notable take away from the article though is the obvious significance of the distortion that was introduced by the government’s creation of the “principle residence capital gains tax exclusion” whereby the profits ($250,000 for an individual and $500,000 for a couple) realized from the sale of a primary residence are excluded from capital gains taxes.

A key point to consider is that a “homeowner” need only occupy the property for two years and can take the exclusion every two years without limit.

This allows for a level of tax-free profiteering, as evidenced by several examples cited in the article (most notably the South-ender), that was clearly not the underlying intent of the original legislation.

It’s important to understand that there are scores of individuals and couples who do, in fact, hop from property to property every two years in an effort to take the fullest advantage of this windfall and in contemplating the long rising tide of prices seen during the housing boom years one can only imagine the number of clever speculators who successfully carved out whole tax-free (state and federal free and clear) incomes through this process.

For some perspective, consider the flap made in recent months concerning professional money managers only having to pay only capital gains (Warren Buffet and his 17.5% tax rate) as they take no regular income instead favoring the far less taxed gains on their invested capital.

In the case of residential real estate flippers though, the loophole is far more significant as they could potentially have taken $500,000 windfall “salary” every two years without paying a single dime in state or federal taxes.

Clearly, this tax dodge has created a tremendous distortion and has to be reined in.

What apparently started out as an effort to strengthening the middle class by allowing real homeowners to take the “gains” on the sale of a primary residence (likely initially viewed as long term primary residence) as tax free profits has now clearly turned into a means for savvy speculators to unfairly sidestep the tax system and a corrupt real estate industry to benefit from a rigged system.

Further, this loophole grossly favors individuals or childless couples as its fullest implementation could only be reasonably carried out by those with independent and detached arrangements.

Apparently, the editors of the Boston Globe are unable (or unwilling) to recognize, even in the face of the epic financial collapse we see today, that it is irresponsible to glorify shameless speculators that used (and in some cases continue to use) massive debt leverage to temporarily secure a residential property, slap on a coat of paint and a wall or two, then wait two years and turn a 100% tax free profit.

What’s worse is that the only reason the Boston Globe published this article is to support its position as the primary vehicle for advertising from the desperate local real estate industry (those with the hard copy can witness the many luxury condo adverts doted throughout its multiple pages).

Obviously, government action or not, this distortion will come to a close as residential real estate prices, particularly condo prices, continue to slide trapping many of these profiteers in their “investments” for as long as they can afford to carry them.

These greedy speculators deserve whatever misfortune they have brought on themselves and though their cry’s for “bailout” may soon be the loudest, hopefully enough of them will be allowed to be financially (and socially) crushed in order to serve as a reminder to our collective consciousness of the risks inherent in debt-leveraged speculation.

Going forward, the government needs to act to close this loophole preventing any further perversion of its original intent.

One thought, simply make the exclusion “once in a lifetime” or extend the qualification of principle residence to 8-10 years of occupancy.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: February 2008

Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for February 2008 and simultaneously Standard & Poor’s released their Case-Shiller Home Price Index for January 2008 both showing, perfectly clearly, the truly dire circumstances that have now befallen the Bay State’s housing market.

Whether it was a slow depression brought about by over two solid years of steadily declining home sales and prices, the credit crunch, a looming recession, a palpable increase in inflation of necessities like food and fuel or just simply a change in attitudes toward the notion of a house as a vehicle for wealth, the regions housing markets have now hit a dangerous tipping point (particularly for fancy south end condos... see BostonBubble.com for more).

It appears that we have entered the “price freefall” phase of the housing decline where mounting inventory, declining sales, and negative sentiment all combine to result in plunging home prices which, quite possibly, may continue to decline substantially even through the spring and summer months which are typically strong periods in any selling season.

The Massachusetts Realtor leader Susan Renfrew, apparently left a bit speechless by poor results, could only muster a weak one-liner before degenerating into a robotic regurgitation of the NAR party line.

“February single-family home and condominium sales came in about where we expected them to, which was generally in line with January’s activity … The good buying opportunities that exist today, along with the recent increases in the FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits could help improve sales over the next quarter.”

MAR reports that in February, single family home sales plummeted 22.9% as compared to February 2007 with unchanged inventory translating to a truly massive 16.2 months of supply and a median selling price decline of 4.6% while condo sales plunged 34.6% with a 4.0% decrease in inventory translating to a startling 17.5 months of supply and a median selling price decrease of 6.7%.


The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Boston, which is the most accurate indicator of the true price movement for single family homes, showed accelerating prices declines (prices are falling faster) with Boston declining 3.39% as compared to January 2007 leaving prices now 10.89% below the peak set in September 2005.

To better illustrate the drop-off in home prices and the potential length and depth of the current housing decline, I have compared BOTH the normalized price movement and peak percentage changes to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for Boston (BOXR) from the 80s-90s housing bust to today’s bust (ultra-hat tip to the great Massachusetts Housing Blog for the concept).


The “normalized” chart compares the normalized Boston price index from the peak of the 80s-90s bust to the peak of today’s bust.

Notice that during the 80s-90s bust prices took roughly 46 months (3.8 years) to bottom out.

The “peak” chart compares the percentage change, comparing monthly Boston index values to the peak value seen just prior to the first declining month all the way through the downturn and the full recovery of home prices.

In this way, this chart captures ALL months of the downturn from the peak to trough to peak again.

As you can see the last downturn lasted 105 months (almost 9 years) peak to peak including 34 months of annual price declines during the heart of the downturn.

As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current market trend.

February’s Key MAR Statistics:

  • Single family sales declined 22.9% as compared to February 2007
  • Single family median price decreased 4.6% as compared to February 2007
  • Condo sales declined 34.6% as compared to February 2007
  • Condo median price increased 6.7% as compared to February 2007
  • The number of months supply of single family homes stands at 16.2 months.
  • The number of months supply of condos stands at 17.5 months.
  • The average “days on market” for single family homes stands at 166 days.
  • The average “days on market” for condos stands at 165 days.