Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

New Home Sales: April 2008

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for April showing continued deterioration in demand for new residential homes across every tracked region resulting in a startling 42.0% year-over-year decline and a truly whopping 62.13% peak sales decline nationally.

It’s important to keep in mind that these dramatic declines are coming on the back of the significant declines seen in 2006 and 2007 further indicating the enormity of the housing bust and clearly dispelling any notion of a bottom being reached.

Additionally, although inventories of unsold homes have been dropping for thirteen straight months, the sales volume has been declining so significantly that the sales pace has now stands at an astonishing 10.6 months of supply.

The following charts show the extent of sales declines seen since 2005 as well as illustrating how the further declines in 2008 are coming on top of the 2006 and 2007 results (click for larger versions)


Look at the following summary of today’s report:

National

  • The median price for a new home was up 1.48% as compared to April 2007.
  • New home sales were down 42.0% as compared to April 2007.
  • The inventory of new homes for sale declined 16.9% as compared to April 2007.
  • The number of months’ supply of the new homes has increased 43.2% as compared to April 2007 and now stands at 10.6 months.
Regional

  • In the Northeast, new home sales were down 58.0% as compared to April 2007.
  • In the Midwest, new home sales were down 39.7% as compared to April 2007.
  • In the South, new home sales were down 41.7% as compared to April 2007.
  • In the West, new home sales were down 37.8% as compared to April 2007.

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2 Comments:

  • I'm with you soldattop, but as usual, you neglect to mention facts which don't fit within your world view. Namely, new home sales (volume) were UP 3.3% over March and the median price was up a whopping 9.1%. Of course, the YOY numbers are horrible and so-so respectively, but your inability to mention the increases hits your credibility.

    By Blogger shamrock, at 2:24 PM  

  • Shamrock,

    The chart tells the story, I'm just narrating a bit.

    I never mentioned the 4-5 month-to-month increases last year either and looking back at the data it doesn't look like I missed anything.

    If you read regularly you know that median prices can be deceptive ... though it is true that I do tend to mention or even highlight median price declines and barely pay any attention to increases.

    Again, looking back at the data I think you will agree that the trend has been consistently down for both sales and prices of new and existing homes.

    World-view or not all housing data is essentially giving you the same picture... the nations housing markets are deflating and the economy is in recession.

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 2:45 PM  

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