Friday, July 10, 2009

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence July 2009 (Early)

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for July showed an unexpected drop in consumer sentiment with a reading of 64.6 remaining just 5.56% above the level seen in July 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) slumped significantly declining to 60.9 or 13.83% above the result seen in July 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index decreased to 70.4 or 3.69% below the result seen in July 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q2 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index increased to a value of 55 as optimism over a second half recovery overshadows the current sluggish outlook.

The June release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors increased 6.2% since May while European confidence increased 9.1% and Asian investor confidence decreased 1.3% all resulting in an increase of 7.0% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests 9.17% above the result seen last year.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.