Monday, July 20, 2009

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators June 2009

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators showed another significant monthly increase climbing .7% compared to May while cutting the annual decline to just 0.98% and leaving the index at a level of 100.9.

On the face of it this is clearly a Bullish “Green Shoots” development as this series (an aggregate of 10 component leading indices) is signaling a clear shift from leading contraction to expansion though the leading index is strongly influenced by stocks and the pronounced “V”-shaped bounce coming directly on the back of such a dramatic period of decline appears suspicious.