Friday, September 11, 2009

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence September 2009

This post combines the latest results of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for September showed a jump in consumer sentiment with a reading of 70.2 an slight decrease of 0.14% below the level seen in September 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) increased to 69.2 resting just 2.98% above the result seen in September 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index increased to 71.8 or 4.27% below the result seen in September 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q2 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index surged to a value of 55 indicating that CEOs are more optimistic about their future prospects.

The August release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors declined 2.2% since July while European confidence increased 4.3% and Asian investor confidence declined 2.3% all resulting in an increase of 3.5% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests a whopping 19.79% above the result seen last year.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.