Monday, June 28, 2010

More Pain, Less Gain: S&P/Case-Shiller Preview for April 2010

As I demonstrated in prior posts, given their strong correlation, the home price indices provided daily by Radar Logic, averaged monthly, can effectively be used as a preview of the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.

The current Radar Logic 25 MSA Composite data reported on residential real estate transactions (condos, multi and single family homes) that settled as late as April 23 indicates that the final expiration of the government's tax gimmick appears to have driven a second, albeit substantially more tepid, price bounce with prices increasing since February but remaining below the tax credit fueled peak reached last year.

Look for tomorrow's S&P/Case-Shiller home price report to reflect a flattening of prices as the source data moves further into months affected by the tax credit activity.