Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings October 2013

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that assessments of housing activity eased in October with the composite HMI index falling to 55 while the "buyer traffic" index slumped to a level of 44.

It's important to note that while the last few months results have suggested a pullback of sorts for home builder activity, the latest trend has been very strong and consistent with the overall recovery seen in the nation's housing markets.  

Looking at the data, it is fairly clear that the last year of results indicate a major change in builder sentiment likely coming as a result of improvements in confidence given the notable rise in buyer traffic, reduced inventory and a more balanced monthly supply.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – October 16 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 3 basis points to 4.31% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 5% and the refinance application volume increased 3% over the same period.

As a result of Fed Chairman Bernanke's abrupt turn-around on the "tapering" issue, rates appear now to be pulling back notably after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims October 10 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed a notable increase to initial unemployment claims and a decline to continued jobless claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims jumped to 374K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 66,000 to 374,000 claims from 308,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 16,000 claims to 2.905 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.44 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 2.51 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 3.95 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – October 10 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined a 6 basis points to 4.28% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 1% and the refinance application volume increased 3% over the same period.

As a result of Fed Chairman Bernanke's abrupt turn-around on the "tapering" issue, rates appear now to be pulling back notably after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices July 2013

The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in July, the price of residential properties increased 0.08% since June rising 17.95% above the level seen in July 2012.

Clearly, the slight pullback in prices seen late 2012 has been completely surpassed by another, notable leg up.

With the prior late-90s era peak having been bested handily by the latest price run up, it will be interesting to see how long this period of house price inflation can run.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business: September 2013

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Non-Manufacturing Report on Business indicating that service related business activity slowed in September with the overall non-manufacturing index falling to 54.4 from last months reading of 58.6.

At 55.1 the business activity index plunged since last month declining 7.55% below the level seen a year earlier.

This month, service industry respondents are sounding a bit down with respondents citing slowing activity, flat business and uncertainty over healthcare costs:

"Overall business conditions are slowing — small manpower decrease of 5 percent." (Construction)

"Business levels continue to be strong. Shifting from transient to group travelers." (Accommodation & Food Services)

"Increased activity following summer vacations, but several postponements as well. Clients still unsure about the economy and business costs (e.g., healthcare)." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

"The federal government's spending is increasing greatly as agencies execute their final budgets and utilize fiscal year 2013 appropriated funds prior to their expiration on September 30th. This has caused a major increase in procurement activity for goods and services. Budgets are uncertain for fiscal year 2014, so some items requiring funding in future years are not being purchased." (Public Administration)

"Business has leveled off — not much in the way of growth." (Retail Trade)

"Some pick-up in sequential sales growth, but still flat with last year." (Wholesale Trade)

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims October 01 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed a increases to both initial and continued jobless claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained over the 300K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 1,000 to 308,000 claims from 307,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims increased by a notable 104,000 claims to 2.925 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.47 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 2.46 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 3.93 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

ADP National Employment Report: September 2013

Today, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that the situation for private employment in the U.S. improved in September as private employers added 166,000 jobs in the month bringing the total employment level 1.88% above the level seen in September 2012.

Look for Friday’s (possibly postponed) BLS Employment Situation Report to likely show somewhat similar trends.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – October 02 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined a notable 12 basis points to 4.35% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 6% and the refinance application volume increased 3% over the same period.

As a result of Fed Chairman Bernanke's abrupt turn-around on the "tapering" issue, rates appear now to be pulling back notably after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: September 2013

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufacturing activity improved in September.

At 56.2 the purchasing manager’s composite index (PMI) rose 0.5% from August and climbing above the level seen a year earlier giving an indication of improving conditions for manufacturing.

Respondent assessments still appear to be hopeful with several noting strength and positive outlook:

"Global sales generally trending moderately higher." (Textile Mills)

"Slight increase in demand. Forecast looks better. 4Q looking better than 3Q — should begin to see demand increase in October/November." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

"Raw materials shortages continue. General trends are up, which enhances shortage issues." (Wood Products)

"Overall business is flat to down across the board." (Machinery)

"Housing continues to improve, resulting in improved conditions for our industry." (Furniture & Related Products)

"Rising costs of China labor has us re-evaluating our current position in that country." (Computer & Electronic Products)

"Steady increase in work this month." (Primary Metals)

"Overall business is picking up." (Transportation Equipment)

"Outlook remains strong with housing market and customer orders." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

"Labor rates along the Gulf Coast are rising with the increased activity of construction and maintenance projects." (Chemical Products)

Unlimited Government!

Listening to a recent Diane Rehm episode entitled "The Politics of Food Stamps" which discussed proposed cuts to the federal food stamps program provides yet another example of how far out of hand and fiscally profligate the statist policy junkies have gotten.

The proposed cut, as stated directly in the opening of the show, would amount to 5% of the program cost, roughly $40 billion, over 10 years or put another way, roughly $4 billion per year for the next 10 years.

Recall from my prior posts that the current monthly cost of funding the federal food stamps program is $6.35 billion with an annual total of roughly $76.2 billion.

So, the proposed annual cut is less than the cost of funding the federal food stamps program for just a single month, spread out over an entire year.

Looking at it another way, the $4 billion annul cut equates to roughly $335 million per month or the equivalent of the cost of providing food stamps benefits to 200K recipients or 100K households per month.

Given the fact that there are currently 47.7 million food stamps recipients, this proposed “cut” is simply a "drop in the bucket", a mere rounding error on a program that has grown far out of bounds in both cost and purpose.

Of course, listening to the Keynesian policy junkies on the Rehm panel though, any cut is too much and completely unacceptable.

No matter that the federal government is effectively insolvent, relying on the Federal Reserve for a $45 billion monthly hit of “stimulation” just to make the ends meet on these programs… “We must not cut these important benefits” the Keynesians opine.

Keep in mind that the proposed cut would simply roll the level of spending back to that seen in mid-2011 with the program still providing benefits to roughly 45.7 million individuals.

At this point, “limited government” as it was traditionally framed is dead philosophy with advocates lucky to simply establish any limits whatsoever over the grotesque expansion of government largesse.  

To that, I say “Bring on the shutdown!”

Pending Home Sales: August 2013

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for August showing that pending home sales declined with the seasonally adjusted national index falling 1.6% from July but increasing 5.8% above the level seen in August 2012.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun is suggests rising interest rates (as a  result of the Feds "tapering" debacle) worked to motivate spring buyers but now that the seasonal surge is over, lower home sales are expected:

"Sharply rising mortgage interest rates in the spring motivated buyers to make purchase decisions, culminating in a six-and-a-half-year peak for sales that were finalized last month ... Moving forward, we expect lower levels of existing-home sales, but tight inventory in many markets will continue to push up home prices in the months ahead."

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims September 26 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed a decrease to initial jobless claims and an increase to continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims climbed back above the 300K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 5,000 to 305,000 claims from 310,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims increased by 35,000 claims to 2.823 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.34 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 2.50 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 3.85 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

New Home Sales: August 2013

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for August showing a notable increase with sales climbing 7.9% from July and rising 12.6% above the level seen in August 2012 remaining at an historically low level of 421K SAAR units.

It's important to recognize that the inventory of new homes appears to be mounting as unsold units totaled 175K, still though near the lowest level seen in in at least 47 years while the median number of months for sale declined to 3.0.

The monthly supply decreased to 5.0 months while the median selling price increased 0.55% and the average selling price increased 4.39% from the year ago level.

The following chart show the extent of sales decline to date (click for full-larger version).

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – September 25 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined a notable 15 basis points to 4.47% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 7% and the refinance application volume increased 5% over the same period.

As a result of Fed Chairman Bernanke's abrupt turn-around on the "tapering" issue, rates appear now to be pulling back notably after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).