Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – March 16 2016

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 5 basis points to 3.85% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 0.3% and the refinance application volume decreased 6% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Sentiment: March 2016

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity generally went flat in March with the composite HMI index remaining flat at 58 while the "buyer traffic" index improved to a level of 43.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey: March 2016

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey consists of a series of diffusion indices distilled from a monthly survey of New York regional manufacturing executives and seeks to identify trends across 22 different current and future manufacturing related activities.

Today’s report showed a overall improvement for both current and future assessments of manufacturing activity with the current activity index rising to a level of 0.62 while future activity rose to a weak level of 25.52.

Current prices paid went flat at 2.97 while current new orders improved to 9.57 while assessments of future new orders improved to 38.96.

Retail Sales: February 2016

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing slowing activity in February with sales falling 0.1% from January but rising 3.1% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales increased 0.66% from January and rose 5.27% above the level seen in February 2015 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales increased 0.66% on the month and rose 4.08% since February 2015.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued March 10 2016

Today’s jobless claims report showed a decrease to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained below the 300K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 18,000 to 259,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims declined by 32,000 to 2.225 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – March 09 2016

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 5 basis points to 3.80% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 4% and the refinance application volume decreased 2% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment February 2016

Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in February, net non-farm payrolls increased by a notable 242,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 230,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment went flat at 4.9% over the same period.

Net private sector jobs increased 0.19% since last month climbing 2.18% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 4.78% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.

Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration February 2016

Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed worsened notably in February.

Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more increased to 2.165 million or 27.7% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment increased to 11.2 weeks and the average stay on unemployment increased to 29.0 weeks.

Employment Situation: Total Unemployment February 2016

Today's Employment Situation report showed that in February “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers declined to 9.7% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate went flat at 4.9%.

The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.

The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.

To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business: February 2016

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Non-Manufacturing Report on Business indicating that service related business activity went flat in February with the overall non-manufacturing index falling to 53.4 from last months reading of 53.5.

At 57.8 the business activity index improved significantly since last month but still dropped 2.69% below the level seen a year earlier.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued March 03 2016

Today’s jobless claims report showed an increase to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained below the 300K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 6,000 to 278,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims increased by 3,000 to 2.257 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.7%.

ADP National Employment Report: February 2016

Yesterday, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that the situation for private employment in the U.S. improved in February as private employers added 214,000 jobs in the month bringing the total employment level 2.08% above the level seen in February 2015.

Look for Friday’s BLS Employment Situation Report to likely show, more or less, similar trends.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – March 02 2016

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined 4 basis points to 3.75% since last week while the purchase application volume decreased 1% and the refinance application volume decreased 7% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Construction Spending: January 2016

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing mixed results January with total private residential construction spending going flat, non-residential construction spending rising and single family residential construction spending falling on the month.

On a month-to-month basis, total residential construction spending went flat with an increase of just 0.01% on the month but rising 7.7% above the level seen a year earlier while still remaining well below the peak level seen in 2006.

Single family residential construction spending declined, dropping 0.2% on the month but rising 6.6% above the level seen a year earlier while remaining well below it's peak level reached in 2006.

Non-residential construction spending increased 1% on the month and rose 11.5% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below the peak level reached in October 2008.

The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.

ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: February 2016

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufacturing activity remained weak in February continuing to contract for a fifth consecutive month.

At 49.5 the purchasing manager’s composite index (PMI) rose 2.7% from January but slumped 6.43% below the level seen a year earlier giving a solid indication of contraction for manufacturing.