Monday, April 18, 2016
NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Sentiment: April 2016
Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity generally went flat in April with the composite HMI index remaining flat at 58 while the "buyer traffic" index improved to a level of 44.
Friday, April 15, 2016
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: March 2016
Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing continued weakness in March with total industrial production declining 0.59% from February falling 2.03% below the level seen in March 2015.
Capacity utilization also weakened falling 0.66% from February declining 3.23% below the level seen in March 2015 to stand at 74.8%.
It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.
Capacity utilization also weakened falling 0.66% from February declining 3.23% below the level seen in March 2015 to stand at 74.8%.
It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey: April 2016
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey consists of a series of diffusion indices distilled from a monthly survey of New York regional manufacturing executives and seeks to identify trends across 22 different current and future manufacturing related activities.
Today’s report showed a overall improvement for both current and future assessments of manufacturing activity with the current activity index rising to a level of 9.56 while future activity rose to a level of 29.4.
Current prices paid jumped up to 19.23 while current new orders improved to 11.14 while assessments of future new orders declined slightly to 36.55.
Thursday, April 14, 2016
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued April 14 2016
Today’s jobless claims report showed a decrease to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained below the 300K level.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 13,000 to 253,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims decreased by 18,000 to 2.171 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 13,000 to 253,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims decreased by 18,000 to 2.171 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.
Thursday, April 07, 2016
Measures of Stress: March 2016
Various regional Federal Reserve Banks routinely publish measures of financial stress which seek to distill many indications of financial turmoil down to convenient single "stress" data points.
As periods of financial stress come and go a whole host of fundamental economic indicators immediately adjust to meet the near and long term expectations of market participants
Interest rates, yields spreads, popular market volatility indices all move in real time giving observers unequivocal evidence of changes general sentiment.
The Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, Kansas, St Louis and Cleveland all publish similar series which combined, offer a unique view of current financial conditions.
In March, all measures of stress appear to be on the rise with Cleveland's index, at a level of 1.72, giving the most notable indication of deteriorating conditions.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued April 07 2016
Today’s jobless claims report showed a decrease to initial unemployment claims and an increase to continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained below the 300K level.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 9,000 to 267,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims increased by 19,000 to 2.191 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 9,000 to 267,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims increased by 19,000 to 2.191 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.
Tuesday, April 05, 2016
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business: March 2016
Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Non-Manufacturing Report on Business indicating that service related business activity improved in March with the overall non-manufacturing index rising to 54.5 from last months reading of 53.4.
At 59.8 the business activity index improved significantly since last month rising 4.0% above the level seen a year earlier.
Labor Market Conditions Index: March 2016
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released their latest read on Labor Market Conditions showing that conditions improved slightly in March with the index climbing to a weak level of -2.3 from February's reading of -2.5.
The Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) is a recent innovation by the Fed, conveniently incorporating the latest dynamics of 19 different labor market indicators into one simple series which has become a favorite economic measure for many labor market watchers, including the current Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
The chart above displays the LMCI alongside the monthly change to the Labor Department's Total Nonfarm Payrolls series (a constituent of the LMCI).
Friday, April 01, 2016
ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: March 2016
Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufacturing activity improved in March rebounding back into expansion after five consecutive months of contraction.
At 51.8 the purchasing manager’s composite index (PMI) rose 4.65% from February and rose 0.58% above the level seen a year earlier.
Construction Spending: February 2016
Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing mixed results in March with private residential construction spending increasing while non-residential construction spending declined.
On a month-to-month basis, total residential construction spending increased 0.9% on the month rising 10.7% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below the peak level seen in 2006.
Single family construction spending increased 1.2% on the month rising 10.6% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below it's peak level reached in 2006.
Non-residential construction spending declined a notable 1.3% on the month but rose 10.6% above the level seen a year earlier but still remains a well below the peak level reached in October 2008.
The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.
On a month-to-month basis, total residential construction spending increased 0.9% on the month rising 10.7% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below the peak level seen in 2006.
Single family construction spending increased 1.2% on the month rising 10.6% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below it's peak level reached in 2006.
Non-residential construction spending declined a notable 1.3% on the month but rose 10.6% above the level seen a year earlier but still remains a well below the peak level reached in October 2008.
The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.
Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment March 2016
Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in March, net non-farm payrolls increased by a 215,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 195,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment increased to 5.0% over the same period.
Net private sector jobs increased 0.16% since last month climbing 2.25% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 4.93% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.
Net private sector jobs increased 0.16% since last month climbing 2.25% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 4.93% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.
Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration March 2016
Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed generally worsened in March.
Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more increased to 2.213 million or 27.6% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment increased to 11.4 weeks and the average stay on unemployment declined to 28.4 weeks.
Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more increased to 2.213 million or 27.6% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment increased to 11.4 weeks and the average stay on unemployment declined to 28.4 weeks.
Employment Situation: Total Unemployment March 2016
Today's Employment Situation report showed that in March “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers rose to 9.8% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate also increased to 5.0%.
The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.
The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.
To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.
The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.
The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.
To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued March 31 2016
Today’s jobless claims report showed an increase to initial unemployment claims and a decrease to continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained below the 300K level.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 11,000 to 276,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims decreased by 7,000 to 2.73 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 11,000 to 276,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims decreased by 7,000 to 2.73 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.
ADP Manufacturing Meltdown
Looking a bit deeper at yesterday's ADP Employment Report, one finds yet another clear signal that the current expansion may have topped-out making recession as a distinct possibility in 2016.
The ADP Total Manufacturing Payrolls series has continued to remain weak but still rose 0.10% on an annual basis.
Keep in mind that while manufacturing is clearly also showing strong secular weakness, this is a very sensitive series that should not be ignored.
Also, a revitalization of the nation's manufacturing sector was a important goal of the current administration's economic policy and a particularly key focus of 2009's American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
The ADP Total Manufacturing Payrolls series has continued to remain weak but still rose 0.10% on an annual basis.
Keep in mind that while manufacturing is clearly also showing strong secular weakness, this is a very sensitive series that should not be ignored.
Also, a revitalization of the nation's manufacturing sector was a important goal of the current administration's economic policy and a particularly key focus of 2009's American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
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