Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Lereah Mea Culpa?

A recently released PowerPoint presentation entitled “Reality Check” is probably as close to an admission of personal error that you’re going to get from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist David Lereah.

Apparently, first presented by Lereah at the NAR Leadership Summit on the 17th and 18th of August, this arrangement of slides seems to cover virtually every point that would be made to support the premise of a bursting housing bubble.

Of course, Lereah falls short of declaring a bursting bubble, instead favoring his “soft landing” position; yet, the presentation seems to depict about as accurate and stark a picture as could have been penned by the most enthusiastic bubble blogger.

Although not a total capitulation, this must be, at the very least, an indication that the data supporting a collapsing housing market has reached such a crescendo that even the most passionate real estate bulls can no longer continue to spin an optimistic picture.

Additionally, on a more ironic note, take a close look at the background of the PowerPoint slides… what to you see. Bubbles! Bubbles and more bubbles! Seems Lereah has a sense of humor after all.

Some points covered in the slides:

  1. Boom is over
  2. Homebuyer confidence has plunged
  3. Buyers Market
  4. Home sales plummet, prices lagging
  5. High percentage of “exotic” loans
  6. Days on the market increasing
  7. Residential construction slowing
  8. Condo depreciation – Especially significant in West and South
  9. Inventory at “all time” high
  10. High debt burdens unhealthy
  11. Incomes detached from home prices
  12. Unsustainable metro home prices
  13. Mortgage obligation to income out of whack, even worrisome particularly in San Diego and Miami
  14. Surging level of ARM loans, over 60% in the West, over 20% nationally
  15. Prices expected to fall

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14 Comments:

  • So what makes him think inflation will drop?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:46 AM  

  • Great find.

    Too bad your excellent blog doesn't have much traffic.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:22 PM  

  • Your excellent blog is going to be seeing much more traffic now.
    Great find and great blog.
    I will now be including your blog with the list of my other credit bubble related blog sites.

    Thank You......

    Crashcadia

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:12 PM  

  • Crashcadia,

    Thanks for the encouraging words.

    I surely would like the blog to get more traffic. The readership has been growing, slow and steady.

    I’d greatly appreciate any links you add to direct more traffic to PaperMoney.

    Thanks again,
    Sold

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 6:29 PM  

  • Are you certain that ppt presentation is not a hoax cooked up by Professor Bear or Professor Piggington?

    By Blogger GetStucco, at 1:26 AM  

  • I just added this to the blogs I read. Good find!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:53 AM  

  • getstucco,

    Here is the original link:

    http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/pages/presentations_use?OpenDocument

    It's from the realtor.org website.

    I also have a copy of the PowerPoint hosted at my site as well so no need to worry NAR will pull the plug on it.

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 6:20 AM  

  • Pretty scary if that is the best spin that this paid shill can put on the present RE train wreck!!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:10 AM  

  • NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE!

    I LOVE THE SLIDE WHERE IT IS ALL DOOM AND GLOOM BUT THE LAST COMMENT ON IT IS

    "SOFT LANDING"

    2 QUESTIONS: DEFINE SOFT LANDING AND HOW IS A SOFT LANDING ANY GOOD (THINK JAPAN)??????????

    NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:35 PM  

  • Even better than the bubble background is the bear on the front page. He really does have a sense of humor! Will wonders never cease?

    By Anonymous OrangeGirl, at 11:53 AM  

  • I believe it will be a soft landing: Quicksand that is...

    By Anonymous Captain's Log, at 4:27 PM  

  • Hi

    i want detail information about mortgage process in US can u give me

    this is mail id

    dhilipneo@aol.com

    By Anonymous dhilip, at 10:03 AM  

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