Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing a decrease of 0.5% from September and a 1.8% increase since October 2006.More importantly though, production of “final product” consumer durable goods have been showing some recent weakness, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting.
The following charts (click for larger) shows both the overall consumer durable component of the industrial production series along with the Home Appliances, Furniture and Carpeting sub-component with two overlay blocks marking the last two recessions.
Note: The second chart simply shows the same data on a year-over-year basis.
As you can see, a sharp pullback on home related consumer durables seems to have been a pretty good indicator that the economy may be heading for a hard landing in the past leaving the latest pullback possibly foretelling rough times ahead.
