Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly indicate the intensity of the second leg down in the decline to the nation’s housing markets and for new residential construction showing substantial declines on a year-over-year and month-to-month basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, again suggests extensive weakness in future construction activity dropping 33.7% nationally as compared to November 2006.
Moreover, every region showed significant double digit declines to permits with the West declining 39.6%, the South declining 36.6%, the Midwest declining 20.6% and the Northeast declining 20.9%.
Keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of last year’s record declines.
To illustrate the extent to which permits and starts have declined, I have created the following charts (click for larger versions) that show the percentage changes of the current values compared to the peak years of 2004 and 2005.
Notice that on each chart the line is essentially combining the year-over-year changes seen in 2005, 2006 and 2007 showing virtually every measure trending down precipitously.
Although year-over-year declines to permits have not accelerated measurably in terms of maximum monthly YOY declines, the fact we are continuing to see declines of roughly 20%-30% on the back of 2006 declines should provide a an unequivocal indication that the housing markets are by no means stabilizing.
Here are the statistics outlined in today’s report:
Housing Permits
Nationally
- Single family housing permits down 33.7% as compared to November 2006.
- For the Northeast, single family housing down 20.9% as compared to November 2006.
- For the West, single family housing permits down 39.6% as compared to November 2006.
- For the Midwest, single family housing permits down 20.6% as compared to November 2006.
- For the South, single family housing permits down 36.6% compared to October 2006.
Nationally
- Single family housing starts down 34.9% as compared to November 2006.
- For the Northeast, single family housing starts down 29.9% as compared to November 2006.
- For the West, single family housing starts down 38.3% as compared to November 2006.
- For the Midwest, single family housing starts down 28.6% as compared to November 2006.
- For the South, single family housing starts down 36.1% as compared to November 2006.
Nationally
- Single family housing completions down 28.5% as compared to November 2006.
- For the Northeast, single family housing completions down 32.7% as compared to November 2006.
- For the West, single family housing completions down 19.2% as compared to November 2006.
- For the Midwest, single family housing completions down 26.0% as compared to November 2006.
- For the South, single family housing completions down 32.9% as compared to November 2006.
