Last week, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing continued weakness to various consumer and construction related durables as well as a significant pullback to general and business vehicle production.“Final product” consumer durable goods have been showing some recent weakness, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting.
Construction supply production has been slowing showing the most severe contraction to wood products seen in at least the last 20 years.
Although automotive production has been showing weakness since the middle of 2004, business vehicle production is now showing a stark contraction.
The following charts (click for larger) show the overall consumer durable component along with the Home Appliances, Furniture and Carpeting sub-component on both a time series and year-over-year basis, construction supply production with the wood products sub-component, and general and business related vehicle production all overlaid with the last two recessions for comparisons purposes.
As you can see, each measure appears to indicate that recession is either currently upon us or drawing ever nearer as the unwinding of the housing-led business cycle exacts its toll on the general economy.
