The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage increased since last week to 6.18% while the purchase volume decreased 10.6% and the refinance volume decreased 27.3% compared to last week’s results.
As I had speculated in the prior two MBA posts, today’s results apparently confirm that the dramatic “spike up” in volume seen during the first two weeks of December was really the result of problematic seasonal adjustment mirroring a similar aberration seen last year.
Both the purchase and re-finance volumes have now completely retraced back to levels reported in October and early November strongly suggesting that the early December activity was simply a statistical “blip”.
Also note that the average interest rates for 80% LTV fixed rate mortgages have moved higher nearing the mean for the year and that the interest rate for a 80% LTV 1 year ARM is close to the peak for the year and well above the fixed rates.
It’s important to note that the data is reported (and charted) weekly and that the rate data represents average interest rates, and the index data represents mortgage loan application volume for home purchases, home refinances and a composite of all loans.
The following chart shows how the principle and interest cost and estimated annual income required to cover the PITI (using the 29% “rule of thumb”) on a $400,000 loan has changed since January 2007.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages over the last number of weeks (click for larger version).
The following charts show the Purchase Index, Refinance Index and Market Composite Index since January 2007 (click for larger versions).
