Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog: Two Great Bounces!

Friday, October 23, 2009

Two Great Bounces!

The following charts provide a simple comparison between the big stock bounce that occurred in the wake of the DOW crash of 1929 and the bounce we are seeing today in the S&P 500 index.

The method of alignment was simple… take the first definitive up trading day off the bottom of the preceding bear market low and set that as the start of the series… then simply re-base both series to a value of 100 so that they can be compared side-by-side.

The lower bar chart plots the cumulative percentage change since the start of each bounce.

The S&P 500 is up over 49% in a little over 150 trading days… an historically aggressive run with an obvious note of mania to it… and wholly comparable to… yet notably stronger than… the price movement seen in the 1930s-era DOW rally.

At this point for the 30s-era DOW, the bull-run was over as the bear trend resumed in earnest… today though the Bull is seriously on the move… how long will this boom last?

Only time will tell… But for now, let’s continue to keep a watchful eye…

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1 Comments:

Dear "Paper Economy" author,

First of all, we have to tell you that your "Paper Economy" blog is fantastic. We haven't encountered an economics blog that is as straight-forward, focused, and disciplined as yours.

We have spent months researching economy blogs and "Paper Economy" stands out for your relentless, fact-based, accessible coverage of the real estate industry and the related factors that affect it.

We are also impressed that you do your own writing and thinking in stark contrast to so many economics "bloggers" who merely cut and paste the work of others, making only the minimal creative effort of putting a headline and single-sentence comment on it.

Your writing style is direct and straightforward, making it easier to understand what's going. Your use of charts and graphs also adds to the reader's ability to get the picture in multiple ways. And your regular features give consistency and predictability to your content; we know that we are going to get our regular "Mid-Cycle Meltdown," "Two Great Bounces," "Reading Rates," "Crashachusetts," "The Almost Daily 2¢," "Conspicuous Correlation," etc. There's something very appealing about knowing that as a reader, I can regularly count on getting features I enjoy.

And, unlike most economics bloggers, you make use of excellent and often humorous photographs to illustrate your posts (we especially like the one you use for your "Collapsedachusetts" reports).

Your headlines are real gems as well and your writing style is clear, concise and passionate. We know what you mean. We are especially impressed with your deep understanding of the industry (an understanding that Marty Baron clearly didn't appreciate as he attempted to cover his, um, assets in your contretemps with the Globe). In addition to offering and explaining data, you also craft many memorable lines.

We very much enjoy your blog and would like to give you more exposure here in the United States and around the world.

We are John Wilpers, global blog coordinator, and Laurent Belsie, Money editor, for The Christian Science Monitor, an award-winning international news organization that covers news and feature stories from every corner of the globe. The Monitor has won hundreds of journalism honors including seven Pulitzer Prizes and more than a dozen Overseas Press Club Awards

Earlier this year, the 100-year-old Monitor became the first nationally circulated newspaper to replace its daily print edition with its website plus a weekly print and daily e-mail edition. Nearly 2 million readers visit the Monitor’s website every month and that number is growing significantly.

To keep the momentum going, we are expanding. We are looking for enlightening, informative posts from bloggers writing about the economy. And we were pleased and excited to find the "Paper Economy" blog.

We would like to extend an invitation to you for your blog to appear on the Money page of csmonitor.com as part of a family of high-quality blogs we are assembling there. We would be co-hosting your blog, running it on our site in parallel with your own, although we would link back to you for all comments and interactivity.

What we offer here is more impact and visibility through a larger audience that wants to understand what’s going on, craves a global context, and tends to be very rich in C-level executives and people with graduate educations. We hope further for a multiplier effect by aggregating a number of high-quality economy blogs that will draw more readers for each other.

We’d like to discuss a possible partnership. Please reply to: wilpersj@csmonitor.com and belsiel@csmonitor.com. Thank you!

Sincerely,

John Wilpers
Global Blog Coordinator
wilpersj@csmonitor.com

Laurent Belsie
Money Editor
belsiel@csmonitor.com

The Christian Science Monitor
210 Massachusetts Avenue
Boston MA 02115

By johnwilpers, at 1:11 PM