Monday, January 24, 2011

More Pain, Less Gain: S&P/Case-Shiller Preview for November 2010

As I demonstrated in prior posts, given their strong correlation, the home price indices provided daily by Radar Logic, averaged monthly, can effectively be used as a preview of the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.

The current Radar Logic 25 MSA Composite data reported on residential real estate transactions (condos, multi and single family homes) that settled as late as November 22 and averaged for the month indicates that in the wake of the expiration of the government's final housing tax gimmick prices remain sluggish going flat since October and declining 2.14% below the level seen in November 2009.

The latest daily RPX data is indicating that the price decline picked up steam throughout November and is currently down roughly 2.25% on a year-over-year basis.

This trend is likely telling us that as transactions collapse down to the weak "organic" level post-housing tax scam, prices will follow.

Look for tomorrow's S&P/Case-Shiller home price report to reflect an equivalent declining-to-flattening trend for prices as the source data moves further through months affected by the tax credit activity and into reality.