Friday, January 07, 2011

ADP vs. BLS Who Do You Trust?: December 2010

Comparing the private nonfarm payroll estimate from ADP, a national staffing and business services firm, to the BLS results, you can see that while an unusual divergence had shaped up over 2010, ADP appears to be closing the gap as of late.

Initially, ADP had appeared to be indicating a significantly more weak "recovery" than the BLS private non-farm payroll results but with the latest results from ADP coming in so strong, it appears that the two series could eventually trend at a similar pace in the near future.

Looking at the chart (click for full-screen dynamic version) you can see that these two series are still quite a bit out of whack with ADP still indicating an increasing annual pace of private non-farm jobs of about half of the BLS rate.