Wednesday, March 09, 2011

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index February 2011

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that economic activity slowed notably in February with the seasonally adjusted index declining 1.51% from January and remaining just 1.83% above the level seen in February 2010.

Further, the three month moving average of the PCI went flat from January indicating that the February (next week) Industrial Production data will likely show a similar trend.

While the Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer calls the latest trend "very disturbing" and "disappointing", it will take some time before we can conclude that the recent expansion is beginning to slow notably.