Thursday, August 21, 2008

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators July 2008

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators continue to indicate troubled times ahead decreasing 0.7% from June and declining 3.25% compared to July 2007, leaving the index at 101.2.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the six significant consecutive year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that with today’s release The Conference Board has incorporated its annual benchmark revision to the complete series.