Monday, April 25, 2011

More Pain, Less Gain: S&P/Case-Shiller Preview for February 2011

As I demonstrated in prior posts, given their strong correlation, the home price indices provided daily by Radar Logic, averaged monthly, can effectively be used as a preview of the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.

The current Radar Logic 25 MSA Composite data reported on residential real estate transactions (condos, multi and single family homes) that settled as late as February 21 and averaged for the month indicates that in the wake of the expiration of the government's final housing tax gimmick prices have continued to decline nationally dropping 4.36% below the level seen in February 2010.

This trend is likely telling us that, as transactions collapse down to the weak "organic" level post-housing tax scam, prices have followed.

Look for tomorrow's S&P/Case-Shiller home price report to reflect an equivalent declining trend for prices as the source data moves further through months affected by the tax credit activity and into reality.