Existing Home Sales Report: September 2016

This week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for September showing an increase with total home sales rising 3.2% since August climbing 0.6% above the level seen a year earlier.

Single family home sales also rose with sales climbing 4.1% from August rising 0.6% above the level seen a year earlier while the median selling price increased 5.6% over the same period.

Inventory of single family homes increased, rising 1.1% from August to 1.80 million units, falling 7.2% below the level seen in September 2015 which, along with the sales pace, resulted in a monthly supply of 4.4 months.

The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued October 21 2016

This weeks’s jobless claims report showed a notable increase to initial and a modest increase to continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained well below the 300K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 13,000 to 260,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims increased by 7,000 to 2.057 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.5%.

New Residential Construction Report: September 2016

This week's New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results with total permit activity rising 6.3% since August while total starts declined a notable 9.0% over the same period.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, rose 0.4% from August to 739K single family units (SAAR), rising 4.4% above the level seen a year earlier and still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts rose 8.1% from August to 783K units (SAAR) rising 5.4% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below the levels seen at the peak in September 2005.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Sentiment: October 2016

This week, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity generally worsened in October with the composite HMI index falling to 63 while the "buyer traffic" index declined slightly to a level of 46.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: September 2016

This week, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing slightly improving results in September with total industrial production rising 0.06% from August but dropping 1.03% below the level seen in September 2015.

Capacity utilization went flat from August dropping 1.38% below the level seen in September 2015 to stand at 75.36%.

It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: August 2016

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing weakening results in August with total industrial production declining 0.43% from July dropping 1.11% below the level seen in August 2015.

Capacity utilization also declined dropping 0.47% from April dropping 1.51% below the level seen in August 2015 to stand at 75.52%.

It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.

Retail Sales: August 2016

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing worsening activity in August with sales falling 0.3% from July but rising 1.9% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined 0.96% from July and fell 0.16% below the level seen in August 2015 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined 0.96% on the month and fell 1.05% since August 2015.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: September 2016

The September release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated improvement of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index rising to a level of 12.8 while assessments the future activity worsened slightly falling to a level of 37.5.

The above chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey: September 2016

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey consists of a series of diffusion indices distilled from a monthly survey of New York regional manufacturing executives and seeks to identify trends across 22 different current and future manufacturing related activities.

Today’s report showed an overall improvement for both current and future assessments of manufacturing activity with the current activity index rising to a still contraction level of -1.99 while future activity also increased rising to a level of 35.43.

Current prices paid increased to 16.96 while current new orders declined to -7.45 while assessments of future new orders increased to 31.89.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued September 15 2016

Today’s jobless claims report showed modest increases to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained well below the 300K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 1,000 to 260,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims increased by 1,000 to 2.143 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business: August 2016

Yesterday, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Non-Manufacturing Report on Business indicating that service related business activity worsened notably in August with the overall non-manufacturing index falling to a weak 51.4 from last months reading of 55.5.

At 51.8 the business activity index also worsened notably since last month.

Construction Spending: July 2016

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending for July showing generally flattening in spending for residential construction while non-residential spending increased.

On a month-to-month basis, total residential construction spending increased 032% on the month rising 6.97% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below the peak level seen in 2006.

Single family construction spending declined a slight 0.015% on the month rising 9.62% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below it's peak level reached in 2006.

Non-residential construction spending increased 1.67% on the month climbing 7.60% above the level seen a year earlier and surging well above the level reached at the peak of the Great Recession in 2008.

The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.

ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: August 2016

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufacturing activity worsened notably in August with the overall PMI falling into contraction.

At 49.4 the purchasing manager’s composite index (PMI) declined 6.08% from July and slumped over 6% below the level seen a year earlier.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued September 01 2016

Today’s jobless claims report showed an increase to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained well below the 300K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 2,000 to 263,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims increased by 14,000 to 2.159 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.

Pending Home Sales: July 2016

Yesterday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for July showing an improvement in sales activity with the seasonally adjusted national index rising 1.3% from June to stand 1,4% above the level seen in July 2015.

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).