Monday, January 28, 2008

New Home Sales: December 2007

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for December showing accelerating deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region resulting in an astounding median sales price drop of 10.42%.

Additionally, 2007 marked the single worst declines in new home sales ever recorded in the 45 years the data has been tracked.

On a year-over-year basis new home sales are continuing to weaken, dropping a truly ugly 40.73% below the sales activity seen in December 2006 representing the largest year-over-year decline registered during this current housing bust.

It’s important to keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of the significant declines seen in 2006 further indicating the significance of the housing bust.

It’s important to note that although inventories of unsold homes have been dropping for eight straight months, the sales volume has been declining so significantly that the sales pace has now reached a new peak value of 9.6 months of supply.

The following charts show the extent of sales declines seen since 2006 as well as illustrating how the further declines in 2007 are coming on top of the 2006 results (click for larger versions)

Note that the last chart essentially combines the year-over-year changes seen in 2005, 2006 and 2007 and shows sales trending down precipitously as compared to the peak period.




Look at the following summary of today’s report:

National

  • The median price for a new home was down 10.42% as compared to December 2006.
  • New home sales were down 40.73% as compared to December 2006.
  • The inventory of new homes for sale declined 7.5% as compared to December 2006.
  • The number of months’ supply of the new homes has increased 54.8% as compared to December 2006.
Regional

  • In the Northeast, new home sales were down 27.4% as compared to December 2006.
  • In the Midwest, new home sales were down 55.8% as compared to December 2006.
  • In the South, new home sales were down 36.3% as compared to December 2006.
  • In the West, new home sales were down 42.9% as compared to December 2006.