Here is a series of great and revealing video segments from the last couple of weeks that may not lift your spirits, but should provide some relevant outlook for the consumer and the looming (or current) recession.First, here is a somewhat startling segment with the David Brandon, CEO of Domino’s Pizza in which he states that the consumer is clearly pulling back and that “unprecedented” food inflation poses the biggest issue for their operations.
Brandon states that the cost of just about every component of their product is at a 10 year high and that it has been hard to raise prices as fast as the underlying commodities have increased.
Needless to say, if the U.S. consumer is pulling back on pizza … draw your own conclusion.
Watch the Brandon’s Wakeup Call on BNN!
Next, Professor Nouriel Roubini and Brian Wesbury join Larry Kudlow to debate the fate of the supposed “Goldilocks” economy.
Roubini accurately points out that “real” consumption has been weak, residential investment has been collapsing and the current liquidity crisis presents the worst financial crisis in 20 years.
Wesbury amazingly puts aside housing rattles off a bunch of anecdotes about getting parking and a seat at a restaurant and then suggests that there is “no evidence that this economy is slowing down”.
Watch Roubini Spar A Foolish Wesbury on BNN!
Next, Again Professor Nouriel Roubini and Charles Lieberman of Advisors Capital Management face off on the fate of the economy and the ramifications of the mortgage-credit debacle and rising energy costs.
Roubini continues to provide his consistently accurate point of view that inevitably sees the economy coming in for a “hard landing” recession while Lieberman suggests that the impact from higher energy costs is “negligible”, the negative savings rate is merely a statistical phenomena, and the adverse effects of the mortgage-credit debacle are “much much smaller” than Roubini realizes… my money is on Roubini.
Watch Roubini Spar a Delusional Charles Lieberman on BNN!
Next, Professor Robert Shiller joins Bloomberg to discuss the most recent results of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.
Shiller suggests that the boom is clearly unraveling with broad based price declines and the seizing up of the credit markets and suggest that it is “it’s not implausible that prices wont bottom out for another five years”.
Watch Shiller Watch The Unwinding on BNN!
Next up, a SPECTACULAR segment… Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates joins Bloomberg to discuss the outlook for the retailers and the economy in general.
This segment is a MUST SEE… Davidowitz does the best job I have seen to date of putting the retail and consumer pictures into context.
Watch Davidowitz Talk Reality on BNN!
Next, Byron Wien, Chief Investment Strategist with Pequot Capital joins Bloomberg to discuss his sobering outlook on the economy for 2008.
It seems the consensus tide is now firmly turning in, like it or not, in favor of some significantly slower times ahead.
Wien believes that the housing collapse has been underestimated and its drag on the economy will remain substantial.
Watch A Truly Gloomy Outlook on BNN!
Finally, Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors joins Bloomberg to spin a tale of housing market stabilization.
Yun partially sidesteps the question on the potential for price declines for 2008 stating that he sees no declines nationally and even price increases in regions in the middle of the country.
Watch Yun Spin Spin Spin!!! On BNN!
