I’ve decided to convert the “Constructing Capitulation” monthly wrapup post of all the economic bits and pieces I track into a recurring document with embedded images, data and narration.I’ll continue to develop this document in coming months adding additional narration and data as well as perfecting the format and content.
Overview
Looking back at January’s results (released throughout February and into March) it now seems very possible that the nation’s housing markets, having just entered its third year of unprecedented nationwide contraction, are now poised to take another even more severe leg down with precipitously falling home prices, palpable recession, and significant inflation of food and fuel all working to depress sentiment and, in turn, stifle both general consumption and housing demand.
Commercial real estate (CRE) is also slowing, showing early but continued signs of weakness with two prominent price indices showing declining prices across most property types. This pullback is likely the result of a combination of both business weakness and the credit market turmoil.
The Job market is showing clear signs of stress and if the past is any guide, unemployment will increase precipitously in the next few months as business tighten belts in the face of the slower economy and lower growth prospects.
The national economy is showing clear signs of strain with Q4 2007 GDP slowing to an anemic 0.6% annual growth rate weighed down by a 25.2% decline to fixed residential investment and a substantial deceleration of the export of goods to 4.0% from the Q3 2007 26.6% annual growth rate.
... Continued in the report (Ill offer a PDF in future posts).
