Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

Friday, March 21, 2008

Collapsedachusetts Existing Home Sales Preview: February 2008

Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that next week’s monthly existing home sales results will show that February single family home sales crashed 22.9% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 34.6% over the same period.

Further, the single family median home value declined 4.6% on a year-over-year basis to $310,000 while condo median prices decreased 6.7% to $252,000.

It’s also important to note that February’s single family home sales count was the lowest February count on record since 1996 and at 1857 units sold was 26.91% below the record peak set in February 1999 and 22.9% below the more recent peak of February 2007.

The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

Notice that February 2008 is registering a home sales count well below even the 2007 level as well as indicating that the March’s results will likely be well below 3000 units, a significant decline.


After over two years of declining home sales, weakening home prices and now looming recession it appears that Massachusetts may have just entered the price “free-fall” phase of the housing decline where home prices continuously drop even through the spring months which are typically strong in the region.

Stay tuned as next week's S&P/Case-Shiller home price index results will be available for Boston likely showing the most significant decline in the last 12 months.

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20 Comments:

  • Astonishing, only $3,000 away from 2003 prices. Or another way to look at it, a person who bought a median home at the peak of $375,000 and had to sell last month at $310,000 lost......well, you can do the math

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:02 AM  

  • It's about time! CRASH BABY CRASH!

    In 2001 prices were too high in Massachusetts to start with anyway!

    By Blogger BigRock, at 10:28 AM  

  • anon,

    This season is going to be VERY interesting...

    Inventory seems moderate so far but sales are WAY off... I think price declines will shock the area.

    The Job market will weaken significantly in the next 3 months and it might possibly fuel a "race for the exists" by July...

    It will be very interesting to see how things turn out.

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 10:30 AM  

  • My heart goes out to any honest individual who will be financially hurt by this down turn.

    However, I do believe that in the long run if Massachusetts is going to stay economically competitive, housing prices need to drop across the board by another 30 to 35%.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:46 AM  

  • Yesterday the market seemed to be saying the worst is behind us and the banking industry is starting to recover. But these volume numbers look bad, like prices are not just trending down but accelerating down. If it's like this all over the country, we're going to see a lot more foreclosures this summer, and more bankrupt banks.

    I wonder what kind of tricks the Fed is cooking up to keep this bubble inflated for just a little longer.

    By Anonymous Dagger, at 11:05 AM  

  • Dagger,

    I think its all about Fannie Mae and mortgage rates at this point.

    The Fed is going to throw the kitchen sink at the problems... I think in the next 3-6 months delinquencies-foreclosures will be quickly headed to 5% which I think will drive up rates as investors shy away from taking the risk (even if the Fed will bail them out) and it will be full crisis mode...

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 11:12 AM  

  • SATT, Congress might also jump into the fray. They could try to freeze or even roll back ARM rates, or they can expand mortgage insurance so foreclosures don't hurt banks so much, or they can create some kind of federal bank that will buy up mortgages.

    Congressmen like these kinds of bailouts because they can say "this is by no means a bailout" and "don't think of this as a bailout". I wonder what Barney Frank will say?

    Congress could even do something radical like enact universal home-owners insurance. But I don't think they're that crazy.

    By Anonymous Dagger, at 12:16 PM  

  • Dagger,

    I agree... If only they would simply propose something which would encourage prices to come down... the Barney Frank FHA deal might sort of do that but I haven't read the proposal yet.

    They do seem to be rocking and rolling now... I wonder where it will end.

    Maybe if I hold out long enough they might force banks with REOs to write down their properties as a total loss and give them to BubbleSitters for FREE!!!

    Whooppiiee!

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 2:56 PM  

  • And the south end in Boston continues to be impervious to any of this. Prices for anything good stay super-high and good stuff is sold within a day. Be nice to get some relief over here.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:10 PM  

  • anon,

    I'm assuming you are talking about the south end condo market...

    If your looking for a deal, it may be sensible to hold on a bit longer...

    The recession will likely put a crimp on the style of even the most most affluent "creative class" type.

    During the 90s downturn (there are some very clear similarities then to now) the Boston condo market took a serious drubbing especially as knowledge workers got hit hard.

    It's possible we are on the precipice of a significant correction in condos...

    Remember, unlike single family homes condos are more able to be visualized as a price/sq foot commodity opening the door to spectacular declines if the inventory-demand balance shifts far enough out of wack.

    Good luck!... BubbleSitters Unite!

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 4:25 PM  

  • Woooh what happened.? Now next time be careful in choosing the house to live. This should be cope to avoid another crashed

    By Anonymous Estate Agents Finder, at 10:37 AM  

  • To anon from 4:10,

    So don't buy in the South End. If people there are too clueless to see that all the alternatives are plummeting in price, screw 'em. You can get a much better deal elsewhere.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:09 PM  

  • We are seeing prices in the burbs around Boston stuck. No real drop in price. Still seeing crappy 50's ranch and splits asking for 600-700K. Its crazy. Not even sure you would call these suburbs of Boston when the closest city is Worcester and Boston is 50-60+ minutes away.
    Where are the pricing corrections?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:41 PM  

  • anon,

    Remember to compare today's market to the peak of 2005.

    This is a completely different market and although prices have not fallen as dramatically as other parts of the country, they have come down quite a bit as the balance has completely shifted to buyers.

    Keep watching as the next few price and sales reports will almost certainly show continued weakness and contraction.

    Eventually sellers will relent further as most of them do have to sell at some point.

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 7:59 PM  

  • This is for the state, not Boston I'm assuming. Boston proper usually escapes these problems.

    No Real Estate Crisis in Boston

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:36 PM  

  • anon,

    Keep dreaming... where were you when condos crashed in the 90s.

    Average selling prices dumped over 15% but many condo owners I knew watched prices fall as much as 50%.

    Prices came back of course but it took over 8 years and this time around I can all but guarantee the correction will be substantially longer.

    Face the facts.. the luxury fad will have to take a bit of a breather as young Bostonians grapple with the larger reality of coping with a more constrained economic environment.

    Good luck in your realtor business by the way!

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 8:50 PM  

  • I'm not a realtor, I'm going to be a buyer.

    The South End (Boston) shows no signs of slowing. Although maybe it will be effected by the new units that are coming online soon.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:33 PM  

  • You're going to be a buyer??

    Then listen now so you can't say no one told you: either you will be living there for a very, very long time, or you will lose a LOT of money.

    You've been warned.

    By Anonymous AUA, at 8:21 AM  

  • For the benefit of anybody reading this blog who might be fooled by the anonymous "buyer", note that he dropped his argument that "Boston proper usually escapes these problems" when SoldAtTheTop offered contradictory evidence. Now his argument is simply that Boston proper is escaping, presumably because this time is different (TM). Don't be fooled - history does not support an escape for Boston proper.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:30 AM  

  • Quote: This is for the state, not Boston I'm assuming. Boston proper usually escapes these problems.

    Here's a chart of condo prices in Boston Proper from 1988 - 2007:

    http://www.bostonbubble.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=3535#3535

    That only covers one downturn, unfortunately, but it does show that Boston Proper did not escape last time. Inflation adjusted prices fell 30% (and possibly more) and remained down for 12 years.

    By Blogger bostonbubble, at 12:03 PM  

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