Friday, May 22, 2009

Collapsedachusetts Existing Home Sales Preview: April 2009

Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that next week’s monthly existing home sales results will show that in April single family home sales declined significantly dropping 13% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales absolutely collapsed falling a staggering 28.8% over the same period.

Further, the single family median selling price declined 12.5% on a year-over-year basis to $275,000 while condo median prices plunged 14.2% to $236,000.

Clearly, the impact of the recent stock market crash (that keeps on crashing) and ongoing economic crisis is bearing down on both consumer sentiment and, more fundamentally, credit availability resulting in a significant pullback in spending on homes and other costly purchases.

It’s perfectly clear now that home sellers that choose to wait out the “down market” did so in vain as the 2008 selling season marked likely the last opportunity to sell any residential property at anywhere near the prices set in the peak boom years.

With confidence depressed and eroding and sale volumes this low, Boston area home prices have nowhere left to go but down.

It’s also important to note that the April’s single family home sales count was the lowest April count on record since 1995 and at 2448 units sold was 41.9% below the record April peak set in 1999.

The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

Notice that April 2009 registered a home sales count well below the 2008 level as well as indicating that the May results may very well drop well below 3500 units, a significant decline.