Friday, November 13, 2009

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence November 2009

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for November showed a decline in consumer sentiment with a reading of 66, a increase of 19.35% above the level seen in November 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) declined to 63.7 resting 18.18% above the result seen in November 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index decreased to 69.6 or 21.04% above the result seen in November 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q3 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index climbed to a value of 63 indicating that CEOs are more optimistic about their future prospects.

The October release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors declined 12.8% since September while European confidence declined 9.3% and Asian investor confidence increased 2.4% all resulting in a decrease of 10.0% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests a whopping 32.03% above the result seen last year.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.