Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators January 2007

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to predict troubled times ahead declining 0.1% from December’s level and 1.52% on a year-over-year basis compared to January 2007, a fourth straight monthly decline leaving the index at 135.8.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the back to back declines of 1.81% and 1.52% seem to suggest that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is either here or very near.

Note that at the end of March, The Conference Board will release its annual benchmark revision to the index as some of the source data is updated.