Realtor’s New Reality: Existing Home Sales Q4 2007

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their existing home sales report for the fourth quarter of 2007 showing, in truly stark terms, the tremendously broad nature of the housing downturn.

Single family home sales, on a year-over-year basis, are now falling in every state except for Idaho and South Dakota and North Dakota (see chart below and click for larger version and note that NH doesn’t report sales data) with even those states sales growth being flat to anemic.

Worse yet, Q4 2007 home sales on an annualized basis compared to peak home sales set between 2005 and 2007 showed significant declining home sales in virtually every state (see chart below and click for larger version) except for South Dakota which showed almost no change.

As for median selling prices, the NAR’s data (see chart below) also shows truly tremendous and widespread weakness among the statistical regions they track with nearly EVERY metro region showing significant declines from their respective peaks set between 2005 and 2007 and MOST metro regions showing declines as compared to Q4 2006.


Given that the majority of price declines have just begun to show in 2007, look for this price chart to continue to deteriorate in coming quarters.

Also, keep in mind that the NAR data only includes sales for MLS listed properties and given this limitation, the S&P/Case-Shiller index for each respective major metro should be considered a far more accurate price reference.

Amazingly, even given the obvious completeness of the housing downturn shown by their own data, the NAR’s newly appointed president, Richard Gaylord, blatantly continues the tradition of shameless self interested spin established by his predecessors.

“With the market in a state of flux, it’s especially important for consumers to stay abreast of widely varying and changing market conditions. We encourage them to have a traditional long-term view, which means taking the time to thoughtfully research the market. More than ever, the best resource is a Realtor who can put local conditions in perspective, provide advice and negotiate the transaction.”

Gaylord conveniently forgets to mention that it was Realtors, voraciously seeking commissions from home sales, that cheered on buying during the inflation phase of the housing bubble and since it’s collapse, has recklessly attempted to spur on more buying locking millions of American families into a deflationary spiral that is likely to push them to the edge of solvency in the months and years to come.