Collapsedachusetts Existing Home Sales (Preview): January 2008
Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that tomorrows monthly existing home sales results will show that January single family home sales crashed 27.7% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales collapsed 33.7% over the same period.Further, the single family median selling price declined 5.6% on a year-over-year basis to $321,000 while condo median prices increased 3.5% to $277,500.
It’s also important to note that January’s single family home sales count was the lowest January result on record since 1992 and at 1984 units sold was 37.9% below the record peak set in January 1999 and 33.1% below the more recent peak of January 2005.
The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.
Notice that January 2008 is registering a home sales count well below even the 2007 level as well as indicating that the February’s results will be well below 2000 units, a significant decline.
Stay tuned as tomorrow the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index results will be available for Boston likely showing the most significant decline in the last 12 months.
Labels: economy recession, housing bubble, massachusetts, national association of realtors, realtor
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9 Comments:
But surely this doesn't include the piping hot market of Arlington, MA - does it???
By
AUA, at 1:45 PM
AUA,
HA!... thats so funny...
It's amazing over here... sales in the towns I track are simply shutting down. SINGLE DIGIT monthly sales for MANY towns with well over 5000 housing units.
I think some of this is also the recession... sentiment is really bad and its affecting home sales just as it is sales of discretionary retail items.
It's kind of ironic... a house is really a necessity but it appears that our foray into excessive housing has caused us to treat it as discretionary... now buyers are cutting back... shopping discount.
By
SoldAtTheTop, at 1:54 PM
It realistically shouldn't even be single digits (apart from "0"). What I want to know is who are these suckers who are still buying at the still overvalued prices?
By
Anonymous, at 1:58 PM
anon,
Well I think its safe to say that up market or down, there are always buyers... they may lose their shirts... but they will buy anyway.
Think of all the buyers of 2006... they overpaid in a really material way... literally bought right at the very peak...
This unraveling will take many more years to play out and I think the buyers of 2006 and 2007 and now 2008 will suffer most.
By
SoldAtTheTop, at 2:04 PM
And if you think Jan was bad wait until February's numbers.
Price Range: up to $475,000
Communities: FRAMINGHAM, NATICK, NEEDHAM, WALTHAM, WATERTOWN
SFH Sales
Jan 1-25 23
Feb 1-25 16
Condo Sales
Jan 1-25 23
Feb 1-25 20
By
Anonymous, at 2:49 PM
If these are the numbers for all of Mass, what are the numbers for just Boston and the close-in suburbs? And do you know of any way to short sell real estate?
By
Dagger, at 3:39 PM
Dagger,
Well later in the week the Warren Group will release their numbers and we will be able to see the real impact on individual towns.
Also, there are "short" sale properties where the banks are selling the property for less then the debt held on it but the only other way I know to short the property market itself is through the put options on CME housing future contracts.
By
SoldAtTheTop, at 3:55 PM
I'm on the MAR website looking at their data from last month and it shows 2532 single family home sales in Dec 07. Your chart makes it seem there were only 1500.
By
rotinski, at 10:01 PM
rotinski,
Respectfully, your confusing the axis and series...
For the single family home sales simply look at where the red line stands for Dec 07 and trace over to the right axis... whala! your 2532 number... also the bars are YOY percent change... trace them over to the left axis and see the sharp declines on a percent basis... for Dec 07 a 20% decline (.2%)
By
SoldAtTheTop, at 10:36 PM
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