More Pain, Less Gain: S&P/Case-Shiller Preview for December 2009

As I demonstrated in prior posts, given their strong correlation (r-squared generally over .90 for each market), the home price indices provided daily by Radar Logic, averaged monthly, can effectively be used as a preview of the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.

The current Radar Logic 25 MSA Composite data reported on residential real estate transactions (condos, multi and single family homes) that settled as late as December 21 indicates that the price bounce seen as a result of the government housing tax credit peaked in August, declined slightly and now has gone flat showing only a slight 0.11% increase since November 2009.

Look for tomorrow's S&P/Case-Shiller home price report to reflect essentially the same trend showing only a marginal change since the last reporting period.