Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Pending Home Sales: November 2009

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for November showing a significant 16% decline since October as buying activity abated likely as a result of the extension of the government sponsored housing tax gimmick lessening the urgency of the manic herd buying behavior seen in October.

Still, on a year-over-year basis, pending home sales increased notably jumping 15.5%.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun is gearing up for another "surge" in the Spring as "buyers" panic into home purchases as a means of capturing a mere $8000 tax carrot.

"The fact that pending home sales are comfortably above year-ago levels shows the market has gained sufficient momentum on its own. We expect another surge in the spring as more home buyers take advantage of affordable housing conditions before the tax credit expires."

The following chart shows the national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Look at the seasonally adjusted pending home sales results:

  • Nationally the index increased 15.5% as compared to November 2008.
  • The Northeast region increased 14.7% as compared to November 2008.
  • The Midwest region increased 9.2% as compared to November 2008.
  • The South region increased 14.7% as compared to November 2008.
  • The West region increased 21.4% as compared to November 2008.