The Globe of Bubbles!?: U.K. vs U.S. Home Prices April 2011

One of the more interesting and most dramatic features of the housing bubble days was how pervasive and broad the mania was, encompassing a multitude of regional housing markets across the United States and around the globe.

Today, post-housing crash, we are still seeing property markets continuing to move together somewhat as governments around the globe scramble to prop up quickly deflating housing assets with boondoggles that quickly reveal themselves as being mere temporary distortions to a trend the remains "organically" in decline.

Comparing the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) index to that of the two popular U.K. home prices indices you can see that while all three indices were showing some significant signs of deceleration in recent months, now both UK series are showing some increases.

The following chart (click for dynamic full-screen version) shows S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 series along with the Nationwide and Halifax U.K. series.

U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide April 2011

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are continuing to signal sluggishness mixed with a slight lift coming in recent months.

The “Nationwide” series, indicated that U.K. home prices increased 0.52% from March but falling 1.30% below the level seen in April 2010 while the “Halifax” series remained flat from March and fell a notable 4.97% below the level seen a year earlier.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide March 2011

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are continuing to signal weakness with continued sluggishness.

The “Nationwide” series, indicated that U.K. home prices jumped notably rising 2.21% from February and climbing 0.14% above the level seen in March 2010 while the “Halifax” series increased 0.45% from February but fell a notable 3.96% below the level seen a year earlier.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide February 2011

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are continuing to signal weakness with continued sluggishness.

The “Nationwide” series, indicated that U.K. home prices declined by a slight 0.02% from January falling 0.09% below the level seen in February 2010 while the “Halifax” series increased 0.26% from January but declined a notable 3.00% below the level seen a year earlier.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide January 2011

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are continuing to signal that the recent up-trend seen in U.K. home prices appears to be drawing to a close.

The “Nationwide” series, indicated that U.K. home prices declined 0.71% from December falling 1.15% below the level seen in January 2010 while the “Halifax” series (slightly less timely) declined 0.67% from November and fell a notable 3.60% below the level seen a year earlier.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

The Globe of Bubbles!?: U.K. vs U.S. Home Prices November 2010

One of the more interesting and most dramatic features of the housing bubble days was how pervasive and broad the mania was, encompassing a multitude of regional housing markets across the United States and around the globe.

Today, post-housing crash, we are still seeing property markets continuing to move together somewhat as governments around the globe scramble to prop up quickly deflating housing assets with boondoggles that quickly reveal themselves as being mere temporary distortions to a trend the remains "organically" in decline.

Comparing the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) index to that of the two popular U.K. home prices indices you can see that now all three indices are showing some significant signs of deceleration.

The following chart (click for dynamic full-screen version) shows S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 series along with the Nationwide and Halifax U.K. series.

U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide November 2010

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are continuing to signal that the recent up-trend seen in U.K. home prices may be drawing to a close.

The “Nationwide” series, indicated that U.K. home prices declined since October dropping 0.6% and remaining just 0.39% above the level seen last year while the “Halifax” series declined by a whopping 1.25% since October and falling 2.42% below the level seen in November 2009.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide October 2010

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are continuing to signal that the recent up-trend seen in U.K. home prices may be drawing to a close.

The “Nationwide” series, indicated that U.K. home prices declined since September dropping 1.42% and remaining just 1.45% above the level seen last year while the “Halifax” series increased 0.44% since September but continued to register a 0.57% year-over-year decline compared to October 2009.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

The Globe of Bubbles!?: U.K. vs U.S. Home Prices September 2010

One of the more interesting and most dramatic features of the housing bubble days was how pervasive and broad the mania was, encompassing a multitude of regional housing markets across the United States and around the globe.

Today, post-housing crash, we are still seeing property markets continuing to move together somewhat as governments around the globe scramble to prop up quickly deflating housing assets.

Comparing the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) index to that of the two popular U.K. home prices indices you can see that while the CSI has trended up in the wake of the government's housing tax scam, the two U.K. series (more timely data) are showing some significant signs of deceleration.

The following chart (click for dynamic full-screen version) shows S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 series along with the Nationwide and Halifax U.K. series.

U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide September 2010

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are signaling that the recent up-trend seen in U.K. home prices may be drawing to a close.

The “Nationwide” series, indicated that U.K. home prices stayed flat since August remaining just 3.05% above the level seen last year while the “Halifax” series declined a whopping 2.47% since August registering the first year-over-year decline in 11 consecutive months dropping 0.50% below the level seen in September 2009.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide August 2010

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are signaling that the up-trend seen in U.K. home prices may be drawing to a close.

The “Nationwide” series, indicated that U.K. home prices declined 1.66% since July remaining just 3.93% above the level seen last year while the “Halifax” series declined 0.59% since July remaining just 3.26% above the level seen last year.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide July 2010

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are signaling that the trend up in U.K. home prices is continuing though at a slower pace than seen earlier in the year.

The “Nationwide” series, indicated that U.K. home prices declined slightly since last month but increased 6.59% on a year-over-year basis while the “Halifax” series indicated that prices showed an increase of 4.93% over the same period.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide June 2010

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are signaling that the trend up in U.K. home prices is, more or less, continuing.

The “Nationwide” series, indicated that U.K. home prices increased 8.74% on a year-over-year basis while the “Halifax” series indicated that prices, while having declined for the last two consecutive months, still showed an increase of 4.47% over the same period.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

The Globe of Bubbles!?: U.K. vs U.S. Home Prices May 2010

One of the more interesting and most dramatic features of the housing bubble days was how pervasive and broad the mania was, encompassing a multitude of regional housing markets across the United States and around the globe.

Today, post-housing crash, we are still seeing property markets continuing to move together somewhat as governments around the globe scramble to prop up quickly deflating housing assets.

Comparing the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) index to that of the two popular U.K. home prices indices you can see that while the CSI has slowed recently, the two U.K. series (more timely data) is showing a continuation of the expansion that began in early 2009.

Is the U.K. markets foreshadowing a stronger trend in U.S. prices?

The following chart (click for dynamic full-screen version) shows S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 series along with the Nationwide and Halifax U.K. series.

U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide May 2010

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are signaling that the pricing bounce seen since March 2009 is continuing.

The “Nationwide” series, which reported data through May, indicated that U.K. home prices increased 9.83% on a year-over-year basis while the “Halifax” series indicated that U.K. home prices increased 4.75% over the same period.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

The Globe of Bubbles!

One of the more interesting and most dramatic features of the housing bubble days was how pervasive and broad the mania was, encompassing a multitude of regional housing markets across the United States and around the world.

In fact, that was one of the primary arguments that prescient author John Talbott outlined out in his early 2000s books on the housing bubble, as he asserted that the sheer fact that bubbles were occurring in so many world property markets simultaneously likely implied that local supply constraints were NOT the cause of the significant house price appreciation, as many had argued.

Talbott accurately concluded that relaxed lending standards and a global credit boom were the real causes of the majority of outstanding property price appreciation.

Today, post-housing crash, we are still seeing property markets moving together somewhat as governments around the globe scramble to prop up quickly deflating housing assets.

One notable example can be seen by comparing the S&P/Case-Shiller index to that of the two popular U.K. home prices indices.

Today, Nationwide released the latest data confirming that U.K. property prices have fallen back a bit as was suggested by the January Halifax release.

Now, all three series, are showing a similar trend of a great decline, a government sponsored bounce and now indications of continued price deflation.

The following chart (click for dynamic full-screen version) shows S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 series along with the Nationwide and Halifax U.K. series.

U.K. Home Prices: Halifax and Nationwide January 2010

The latest release of the two most prominent home price indices for the United Kingdom are signaling that the pricing bounce seen since March 2009 is continuing.

The “Nationwide” series, which reported data through January, indicated that U.K. home prices increased 8.62% on a year-over-year basis while the “Halifax” series which also reported data through January indicated that U.K. home prices increased 4.15% over the same period.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic chart) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

Bubble’s Bounce Then Bust Again!?

Against the backdrop of historically low interest rates and government stimulation, "resilient" participants in property markets in both the United States and the United Kingdom responded with nothing short of jubilance.

Whereas pessimism was the leading dynamic for the majority of 2008, it seems that the Spring of 2009 brought a renewal of housing euphoria, albeit in a more limited and fragile sense.

In the U.S., the first time “homebuyer” tax credit, the “cash for clunkers” of housing, provided significant stimulation on the lower end, driving sales and a noteworthy bounce in prices.

In the U.K., the lowest interest rates in most peoples' lifetimes taken together with significantly corrected prices provided the impetus for a notable price bounce as well.

But how long can this government-sponsored stimulation last and what will happen if it doesn’t?

The most recent data is showing signs that the euphoric bounce is likely drawing to a close.

The Radar Logic home price indices clearly show that the U.S. home price bounce topped out in mid-summer and is now trending down nationally and even in some of the worst hit markets where prices have already dropped back to levels not seen in at least a decade.

The latest data out of the U.K. shows that home prices there are continuing to bounce with the "Nationwide" series showing the second consecutive year-over-year increase while the "Halifax" series now shows the first annual increase in in twenty one months.

Yet, on a month-to-month basis both series show only tepid increases.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 series, a comparable series to both of the U.K. series, is also showing that the rate of recent house price inflation is slowing on a month-to-month basis while remaining strongly negative on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. Invasion: U.K. Home Prices March 2009

The two most prominent and long running monthly U.K. housing price indices continue to register serious year-over-year declines resulting in the largest peak decline seen in at least 17 years.

The “Nationwide” series, which reported data through February, indicated that U.K. home prices declined 17.6% on a year-over-year basis while the “Halifax” series which reported data through March indicated that U.K. home prices declined 17.65% on a year-over-year basis.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following charts (click for larger) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.

Notice that annual price appreciation peaked in 2003 and continued to weaken consistently until early 2008 when it actually devolved into annual depreciation.