Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Beveridge Curve Balancing Act: May 2011

Looking deeper at today’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover report you can see that while the unemployment rate is showing notable signs of establishing a peak, the job openings rate is showing an equal but opposite troughing dynamic.

Further, the latest data indicates that private job hires are occurring at a rate of 3.5% of total employment while private job separations occurs at a rate of 3.5%.

So, currently job hires are equivalent separations thus resulting in, more or less, a stagnant job market and more evidence that the unemployment rate may stay elevated for some time.

It's important to note that today's data is very preliminary and volatile and that a more sustained and sustained spread between the rate of hires and separations would be required to make a significant dent in our current structurally weak job market.