Monday, July 25, 2011

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: June 2011

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic remained weak in June with the index remaining in contraction territory for the third consecutive month at -0.46 while the three month moving average declined to -0.60, a slight 10 points above the Feds official recessionary mark.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at -0.60, the current three month average index value is indicating that contraction may be in the offing.