Showing posts with label bubble. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bubble. Show all posts

Monday, April 26, 2010

Las Vegas Re-Busting!

The latest inductee to the “Re-Busting” lineup is Las Vegas with a Radar Logic price line reflecting the phenomenally extreme circumstances of boom and bust as has ever been seen.

Back in late 2005 and early 2006 the popular real estate boards we rife with debate over the fate of Las Vegas.

Some witnessed the extraordinary run up and saw a future with an inevitable correction, others argued that there were fundamental reasons for the appreciation and sought to double down for even greater returns.

Well, we now know how those “bets” turned out… one day your holding all the cards… the next all the loss.

In any event, the government’s attempt to ride to the rescue of the sorry lot who came out short by luring in others who had not yet had the opportunity worked to spark the best suckers rally the Las Vegas market had seen in three years.

This mini-boom lasted some three months peaking out in late summer 2009 before falling back down again by early fall.

Coming into November there was another second blip run-up into the first expiration of the home buyer tax gimmick but again, prices dropped again.

It’s important to recognize that Las Vegas is now down at series lows some 59.12% below the peak seen in 2006 and continuing to decline at the fairly brisk pace of 15.63% on a year-over-year basis.

Friday, February 08, 2008

Commercial Catastrophe?: MIT/CRE Commercial Property Index Q4 2007

There has been growing speculation and concern that the commercial real estate (CRE) markets will inevitably follow the lead of the residential markets down into a recessionary decline.

The notion of commercial real estate markets suffering a similar downturn as residential is both supported by historical correlations (e.g. residential and non-residential investment) as well as the anecdotally logical outcome for a market that has seen similar levels of loose over-lending.

Fortunately, we need not speculate about the current state of CRE as the MIT Center for Real
Estate tracks commercial property prices
with a series of indexes that cover Apartment, Office,
Industrial and Retail property types.


Notice in the top aggregate chart, after having some substantial growth between 2003 and Q2
2007 (particularly during 2005 – 2006), there has been a precipitous 7.23% price drop during the second half of 2007.

Furthermore, in Q4 2007 the Industrial and Apartment components are now showing peak declines of 8.77% and 0.73% respectively.

In future posts, I’ll elaborate on the correlation between residential and non-residential fixed investment and add additional charts using MIT’s CRE supply and demand index data as well as the Moodys/REAL CPPI also produced by MIT/CRE.

Monday, May 28, 2007

Gettin’ Down with Toll

Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) reported Q2 earnings results last week confirming a $119.7 million of pretax write-downs that served to depress their net income by an astounding 79% as compared to Q2 2006.

Additionally, Toll yet again reduced its expectation for the maximum number of homes delivered for 2007 from 7300 homes last December to 7000 in Q1 now to 6900.

During the conference call, CEO Bob Toll uncharacteristically offered very little optimistic sentiment even offering some skepticism regarding recent Treasury Secretary Paulson’s “market bottom” outlook and the recent up-tick in the Census Department’s New Home Sales.

“I think what that indicates is that most new homebuilders that are large, the public homebuilders, their average product goes anywhere from about $250K up to us which is about $700,000 so obviously the increase [in sales] is taking place below our space. Which means that we’re not out of the woods yet. I took with surprise yesterday and it’s now confirmed today by this analysis when the secretary of the treasury said that we’ve got the hard times pretty much behind us I wondered how many communities he had and where he got that information but I now understand that the information he got hadn’t been pealed away, I guess, to show that it was $150,000 housing. So I would say that we have not got the bad times behind us yet though it could be… you never know.”

When asked about the April year-over-year comparisons getting less negative Toll suggested that favorably comparing against a year that “stinks” is not what he’s looking for.

“As you get further in to a down market, in terms of length of time, the comparisons are going to get better. So that, ultimately, if we stay here for a long period of time, you will see that April sales equaled April sales last year. That’s not what we’re looking for of course. So, I think the statements are a little misleading. The comparisons are good but what you’re comparing to stinks so that’s why your getting unhappiness expressed by the public home builders.”

Ivy Zelman, analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston tweaked Bob Toll in a minor skirmish over Toll’s interest in buying additional land.

Toll: “I would hope that we would increase the land portfolio somewhat from where we are now, we are actively looking and trying to buy… We have raised thresholds because we can and I think we should operate more prudently, more carefully than we did when the market was going up.”

Ivy: “You don’t feel that having almost a 10 year supply of land is enough?”

Toll: “Well, we hope that it’s not 10 years Ivy.”

The complete conference call can be listened to here.

Here are some of the interesting data points from the Q2 release:

Second Quarter Results

  • Net income was $36.7 million down 79.0% compared to Q2 2006.
  • Pre-tax land write-downs totaled $119.7 million up 897.5% compared to Q2 2006.
  • Earnings per share declined 66.7% as compared to Q2 2006.
  • Total revenues were $1.17 billion down 18.75% compared to Q2 2006.
  • Net signed contracts were $1.17 billion down 25% compared to Q2 2006.
  • Quarter end backlog was $4.15 billion down 31.6% compared to Q2 2006.
  • Signed contracts was 2031 down 14% compared to Q2 2006.
Current 2007 Projections

  • Deliver 6100 – 6900 homes (prior estimate 6000 – 7000).

Saturday, May 26, 2007

Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales: April 2007

This week, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for April 2007 showing further weakness to the regions residential housing market.

Along with the release, MAR President Doug Azarian continued to maintain an optimistic outlook on the trend.

“The housing market continued to trend in a positive direction for the month of April … While the number of detached single-family homes sold was down, the 1.7 percent decrease year-to-year was the lowest we’ve seen in the month of April for the past three years. … With inventory levels decreasing and interest rates still low, demand should continue to keep prices stable through the end of the spring home buying season,”

Probably the most notable data-point of the report is the continued increase of the average “days on the market” resulting in an increasing monthly supply.

Although the total residential inventory is lower now than in April of 2006, the sales pace is continuing to slow.

It’s important to remember that we are again seeing year-over-year sales declines “on the back” of last years historic sales drop-off indicating truly fundamental weakness.

This is inevitably resulting in climbing inventories that for some towns, such as Concord, are exceeding last years levels while many other towns continue to simply trend upward.

Use the PaperMoney Inventory Tracker to follow your town’s daily inventory as well as visualize the inventory changes that have occurred over the last year.

As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current market trend.

April’s Key Statistics:

  • Single family sales declined 3.5% from March and declined 1.7% as compared to April 2006
  • Single family median price increased 0.3% from March and declined 2.3% as compared to April 2006
  • Condo sales declined 0.7% from March and increased 0.7% as compared to April 2006
  • Condo Median Price declined 1.6% from February and increased 2.6% as compared to April 2006
  • The number of months supply of residential properties stands at 10.0 months.
  • The average “days on market” for single family homes stands at 150 days.
  • The average “days on market” for condos stands at 143 days.

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Mad As Hell

In an impassioned yet somewhat contrived and disingenuous “finger pointing” appeal to the National Press Club, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Chairman John Robbins yesterday placed the blame of the subprime meltdown squarely at the feet of “unethical” predatory lenders while simultaneously insisting that the extent of the damage has been overblown.

“I know the good my company, my employees and thousands of my fellow mortgage bankers have done for families, for communities, and for this country. Frankly, Id imagine my brief tenure as Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association would be celebratory. One part victory lap, one part implementation of initiatives with a lasting impact on the industry I so cherish. Yet I stand before you mad as hell. I have to be angry. It would be too depressing to accept that a very few, unethical people, can give my profession, and me, a black eye.”

Robbins goes on to use passionate words for everything from the role of Mortgage Bankers in promoting home ownership to immigrants utilizing subprime loans to get their share of the American Dream.

“Many of the people in this category are not mere victims of unscrupulous lenders. They’re smart people who took a calculated risk to get into a home, all along planning to refinance before the big jump in their ARM. We can’t leave these people twisting in the wind. They were practicing financial planning and attempting to take advantage of the opportunities they saw in the future. They were betting on themselves. To keep their financing options open, we must avoid a credit crunch.”

Yet when addressing real estate speculators, his tone quickly changed.

“It’s clear that our first steps are to help those that are in trouble. We mean homeowners living in their own homes. We’re not for rescuing real estate speculators. Blanket forbearances that bails out investors could actually drive up delinquency. Some might view it as a way to get out of their obligations… Even the talk of blanket forbearances could spur a surge in delinquencies.”

When addressing the question of who was responsible for the current state of the subprime market, Robbins risks an association “battle royal” with the National Association of Mortgage Brokers by pointing the points the finger squarely at “the short term folks” who care only about “their commission”.

“We need to identify the problem… unethical people. They’re responsible for this mess. The short term folks. People who get a commission when the deal happens. For them it’s the number of loans that count. Good loan, bad loan... who cares. For them, it’s all about their commission. … For the people who caused this problem, there’s no such thing as a lifetime customer. The closest they get is someone you refi every six months until they sink. They, not people with marginal credit, are the ones that need to be stopped. Frankly, it’s too easy to hang a shingle out and call yourself an expert in mortgages. We need licensing of brokers with a threshold that will weed out those unwilling to be responsible.”

In a particularly emotional and sappy portion of his address, Robbins recounts what it means to him to be a mortgage banker.

“Their stories take me back to one of my very first originations. The Realtor had left the keys to the house with me and asked if I could drop them off to the buyers once all the paperwork was done. Well, I went to their apartment, and we were sitting around a little Formica table… bright red. And I handed them both the keys at which point they both started crying. They said they never imagined they would own their own home. That was 37 years ago and you know it just never leaves you. There isn’t a day that goes by that I don’t stop and think about that scene going on thousands of times across this country. And that’s why, despite my temporary black eye, I’m proud to be a mortgage banker. Thank you.”

Later in the Q&A portion of the appearance, Robins is asked how immigrants in the past received financing to buy homes prior to the boom in subprime lending.

“Those that could afford to do so, and not all could, accumulated a traditional 20% down, waited years, and years, and years to obtain home ownership when they had the possibility to do that. But then home ownership was for the wealthy and the powerful not for the masses.”

Here Robins continently forgets that until recently the national home ownership rate had traditionally hovered at about 65%, hardly limited to the wealthy and powerful.

Furthermore, it has only been during last ten years, with lending running footloose and fancy free, that an extra 5% of Americans have been draw into home ownership many without down payments and with volatile and exotic affordability loan products.

Watch the entire National Press Club address on BNN!

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Toll’s Dirty Dance

Ouch!

Things have not gone well for Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), certainly not nearly as well as CEO Bob “Dancing on the Bottom” Toll had anticipated as 2006 drew to a close.

Back then, an optimistic Toll had suggested that the housing downturn may likely have bottomed.

“Fifteen months into the current slowdown, we may be seeing a floor in some markets where deposits and traffic, although erratic from week to week, seem to be dancing on the bottom or slightly above.”

Furthermore, at that time Toll Brothers announced that they budgeted an additional $60 million to account for all pretax write-downs for the entire year of 2007, an allotment easily surpassed by the $96.9 million actually required for only the first quarter of 2007.

Now, Toll has announced an additional $90 million to $130 million in pretax write-downs for just Q2 2007!

That brings the total of pretax write downs to somewhere between $186.9 million to $226.9 million for just the first half of 2007, a truly astounding number compared to the $152 million in write-downs taken in all of 2006.

As for the dancing, Toll now suggests that things have taken a turn for the worse.

“Virginia came back… remember when I had said, either last quarter or the quarter before that that we were dancing off the bottom.. or something opaque like that, in the northern Virginia, Maryland, Washington DC market. The market continued to improve, not much but a little bit, and [now] it’s back down a little bit.”

As for additional impairment write-downs soon to come from obviously poorly purchased property such as a very large parcel Toll purchased on the outskirts of Las Vegas in January 2006, Tool responded:

“The real answer is, you haven’t reached the point where can prove to your auditors that the value isn’t there and therefore has to be written down in order to show a profit. I mean, you could argue all day that Vegas is slow and this property is going to come on the market in 09 and if things are in 09 as they are today, when we open it, we’ll be hard pressed show a profit and they’ll want to get vary exact and say ‘hard pressed quite do it’. You’ve got to show that you’re below the line.”

When asked about his outlook for the housing market in Florida, Toll replied:

“Nice place to play golf in the winter, but not a great place to sell homes right now. There are probably great opportunistic land deals in Florida, the problem is, sometimes half-price ends up to be twice-price.”

When asked if he thought there would likely be additional future reductions of “head-count” (layoffs) Toll responded:

“I prefer to call it overhead, and the answer is yes. We haven’t stopped, but we will be looking even more seriously at reducing overheads where sales paces are reduced.”

When asked to “grade” the different markets across the nation, Toll responded:

“In our northern territories, Massachusetts and Rhode Island are ‘F’. Connecticut is a ‘B+’. New York exurbs are ‘B+’, New York urban which for us is Queens, Brooklyn and Manhattan are a ‘B+’ if not an ‘A’. Jersey City and Hoboken are a ‘B+’. New Jersey suburbs, oddly enough when you juxtapose them against the New York suburbs ... you got an ‘F’, it may be due to the tax situation in New Jersey, Michigan is an ‘F’. Chicago is surprisingly still and ‘F’ market. Minnesota is a ‘C-‘ market which is a whole lot better than it was. The Philadelphia suburbs is a ‘B’ market for us. The Poconos is an ‘F’ market. The state of Delaware is a ‘C+’ market. The mid-Maryland shore, as I said earlier, is an ‘F’ market. Washington DC, northern Virginia is probably a ‘D+’ market. Raleigh is a ‘B’ market. Charlotte is a ‘B’ market. South Carolina is a ‘D’ market as in dog. Florida, central market, Orlando, we sell a lot of homes, we get the same homes back, we sell the same homes, we get the same homes back, it’s a very hard market to figure. People, I guess are renting them without ever moving in. That’s and ‘F’ market. Florida east coast is an ‘F+’ market. Florida north, Jacksonville, pretty much an ‘F+’ market. Tampa is an ‘F’. Florida on the west coast is an ‘F’. Texas is good, Austin is a ‘B’ market, Dallas and San Antonio, we’ve got a ‘C’ market because we haven’t got our product up and running as we should yet so it’s only a ‘C’ market. I suspect it’s really a ‘B’. Northern California averages to be a ‘C’ market for us, there are some pockets that are ‘B’ and some that are ‘D’. California southern market is a ‘C’ market for us. California Palm Springs is a ‘C’ market for us. Arizona … I would rate as a ‘D-‘. Vegas is definitely an ‘F’. Reno is an ‘F’. Colorado is a ‘C’.”

During the conference call, there is extensive discussion on Toll Brothers outlook for impairments as well as their methodology and criteria used to determine and take them which can be listened to in its entirety here.

Here are some of the interesting data points from today’s preliminary release:

  • Total revenue totaled $1.17 billion, down 19% as compared to Q2 2006
  • Quarter end backlog totaled $4.15 billion, down 32% as compared to Q2 2006
  • Net signed contracts totaled $1.17 billion, down 25% as compared to Q2 2006
  • Pre-tax land write-downs totaled between $90 million and $130 million
  • Q2 cancellations totaled 384 compared to 436 in Q1 2007
Remember, these results are preliminary and Ill post a more complete summary of Tolls Q2 results when they become available on May 24.

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Adding a Little Color to Countrywide

On Thursday, the executives at Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) held their conference call to discuss the results for the first quarter of 2007 showing net earnings dropping 37% as a result of swelling delinquencies and growing impairment charges.

To combat the slide, Countrywide is taking measures to tighten credit standards as well as increasing its pricing to account for additional future risks.

David Sambol, President and COO stated:

“In terms of the adjustments that Countrywide has made in response to market conditions, I mentioned that industry guidelines had been tightened. Well we have also significantly tightened our own credit guidelines and programs. For example, ‘materially restricting’ 100% loan-to-value financing. Carving back, materially, reduced documentation programs… particularly on the high LTVs. Eliminating subprime second mortgages which have particularly been impacted by liquidity and loss of value in the market.”

It’s interesting to note that although Countrywide is not completely eliminating the 100% LTV subprime loans, they are restricting activity to a very small percentage as well as limiting other similarly risky products.

The following lists the changes to subprime lending standards implemented recently at Countrywide:

  • 100% LTV will be limited to a just 3% of the subprime production compared to 24% in 2006.
  • ARM 100% LTV will be limited to less than 2% of the subprime production compared to 90% in 2006.
  • Subprime Second Liens will be eliminated entirely.
  • No-Low Documentation loans will be limited to less than 2% of the subprime production compared to 35% in 2006.
  • Average LTV for the subprime production will be brought to less than 80% from 85% in 2006.
  • Subprime loans to first time homebuyers will be reduced to 5% from 22% in 2006.
  • Subprime loans, as a percentage of total purchase, will be brought to less than 20% compared to 60% in 2006.
A particularly interesting outcome of these changes lies in the elimination of the Subprime second liens as these were typically used for the 20% “piggyback” of the 80/20 100% LTV products.

As Sambol puts it:

“As I mentioned, we are no longer doing subprime seconds, in part because of the lesser investor demand for that product. And most of those seconds represented the 20% piece of a 100% financing loan, the 80/20 that you might be familiar with that were very popular in the subprime market. And again, if you recall, we have materially curtailed our program such that we expect to do very few subprime 100% financing going forward.”

As for pricing, Sambol adds that the latest rate sheets more accurately value risk as well as simply reflect the less competitive market environment that exists now after many industry players have gone bankrupt.

“And then pricing of new loans that we are originating have also been adjusted to provide for a more conservative loss assumptions, higher yields on our retained interest from future originations and greater origination margins as well.”
“We’ve seen credit occurring in the industry and we have tightened our guidelines somewhat as well on the Alt-A side. And I would point out that our rate sheets and our pricing fully reflects all the widening seen in the markets.”

“We are now pricing our rate sheets to provide for profitability in each of our channels. Where I will tell you that in 2006, for much of 06 and 2005, competitive conditions were such that in certain of our segments we were pricing to break even, it was that tight. But with the exit of the market of so many players, we and the rest of the industry have materially increased rates and starting as early as the first quarter we expect to see each of our production divisions, our retail subprime operations, wholesale and the little bit we still do on the correspondents side generating positive margins.”

In fact, the pricing for subprime loans seems to have increased substantially as seen by comparing this Countrywide rate sheet for Massachusetts dated March 12 to the following one dated April 16.

When discussing the impairment charges accounted for in Q1, Sambol states:

“The impact both of write downs to our subprime investment and to our production profitability in the first quarter stemming from the turmoil in the subprime market. We have quantified that the quarter-over-quarter impact was approximately $400 million.”

On page 7 of the supplemental presentation associated to the conference call there is an interesting footnote on the “Impairment of retained interests” item that reads “Change in impairment of retained interests includes $53 million from other 1st lien residuals with loan features that are similar to subprime” seemingly indicating that a significant percentage of the impairment charges came from prime loans.

Diging into the Q1 results it appears that the actual impairment numbers were a little heavier than in Sambol’s presentation, particularly the prime loan charges.

“Loan Servicing sector pre-tax earnings were adversely impacted by $429 million in impairment charges against retained interests. Impairment charges of $231 million were related to subprime and similar retained interests, while $135 million was related to retained interests on home equity lines of credit extended to prime borrowers. These impairment charges were driven by increased estimates for future losses on loans underlying the related securities as well as increased market yield requirements. In addition, the Company incurred $63 million in impairment on other retained interests where Countrywide does not retain credit risk. This impairment related to increased market yield requirements.”

All in all, the $429 million impairment charge has swelled 256% as compared to Q1 2006 $120 million charge.

Later in the Q&A portion of the conference call, CEO Angelo Mozilo was asked to elaborate on Countrywide’s recent switch over to an OTS regulated thrift which was a change that Mozilo to strongly denied had anything to do with sidestepping new Federal Reserve regulations.

“That decision was made because of, I think, two primary reasons. One is that the OTS has a historical housing mission and that matched up with our mission much better than the OCC and the Fed. We had no particular complaints about the Fed at all, nor the OCC. We believe we enjoyed a solid relationship with them but the practical matter was that when we began to examine where this company was going over the next decade and beyond, we did not see ourselves in any business that would require an OCC charter and Fed supervision. We are not going to be a lender in commercial loans in Japan or any of those kinds of things so the businesses that we planned to be in matched up perfectly with the authorities of the OTS. The second reason which was tied to that is that it is much more difficult for, at least for us, to manage and deal with two regulatory bodies that from time to time went in two different directions, than it was to deal with a single regulator that examined the bank and supervised the parent.”

When asked about his outlook for the market and home prices as it relates to Countrywides business, Mozilo replied:

“I think, bottom line, it’s very difficult to determine where [home] prices are going. It would certainly, based upon our view of where the world is today, increased foreclosures, as that comes on to the market we’ve got to work through that. During that period of time, in certain areas of the country values will go down. Certain unique areas of the country, values will stabilize and others, although few, where values will continue to climb but not at the rate they did before so it’s sort of a mixed bag.”

The entire conference call can be listened to here.


Monday, April 23, 2007

Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales: March 2007

Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their 1st quarter 2007 and March 2007 results for existing home sales, median prices and inventory along with a fresh dose of spin from President Doug Azarian and MAR President-Elect, Susan Renfrew.

Before we delve into the numbers, let me point out the truly awful quality of data reported by MAR, particularly on Azarian’s watch.

For a few months now I have noticed some strange “revisions” to the single family sales numbers for past months and after considering all the possible rational reasons for these irregularities, I can only conclude that it is sloppy reporting on the part of MAR.

I should mention, that I don’t necessarily think that there is any foul play in MAR’s reporting, instead it appears that MAR has simply fumbled and, unfortunately for us, has tainted the sales and median price results.

There are several many that exhibit questionable revisions but Ill highlight February and March of 2006 as examples.

It February 2006, MAR’s Existing Home Sales Report (EHS) reported that single family sales were 2254 units with a media sale price of $339,450.

MAR than revised this number in their March 2006 EHS report to show February 2006 single family home sales of 2265 units with a median sale price of $339,000.

Then in the February 2007 EHS, MAR reports that in February 2006 single family home sales were 2380 units with a median sale price of $339,000 while ALSO citing the 2265 unit sales number at the bottom of the very same report (first and second pages versus very last page).

Which is it … 2380 or 2254? Both numbers are used in the same report.

Furthermore, in the March 2006 EHS report, MAR reported that single family home sales were 3440 units with a median sale price of $344,000.

MAR then reaffirmed both their single family sales and median price numbers in their April 2006 EHS report.

Then in the March 2007 EHS, MAR reports that in March 2006 single family sales were 3550 units with a median selling price of $343,500.

That’s a 3.2% upward revision to single family sales yet there seems to be no evidence that the number is accurate.

Keep in mind, I looked back over MAR’s past releases to see any patterns to revisions and there are some but there are many examples where months are simply randomly altered showing totally different numbers in-between months that have numbers consistent to what was past reported.

Also, these revisions have all been made WITHOUT the customary press release providing any explanation for the changes as well as for the procedure used for revisions.

Wouldn’t it be great if “crack” reporter Kimberly Blanton of the Boston Globe could focus some attention on issues like MAR’s unusual numbers revisions rather than reporting puff pieces on the strength of the bottoming housing market?

Well good numbers or bad we are stuck with what we have and with that lets take a look at March 2007’s findings.

With the today’s release of the existing home sales, MAR president Doug Azarian suggests, “The housing market in Massachusetts is gaining momentum and we can continue to feel good about where it is headed. With prices remaining stable and supplies decreasing, we can expect the spring home buying season to be active.”

As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current market trend.

March’s Key Statistics:

  • Single family sales increased 43.2% from February and declined 2.8% as compared to March 2006
  • Single family median price increased 5.8% from February and declined 0.1% as compared to March 2006
  • Condo sales increased 39.6% from February and declined 1.4% as compared to March 2006
  • Condo Median Price increased 3.3% from February and declined 3.0% as compared to March 2006
  • The number of months supply of residential properties stands at 9.0 months.
  • The “days on market” for single family homes stands at 158 days.

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

New Residential Construction Report: March 2007

Popularly reported as an “unexpected rise” in housing starts, today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to indicate significant weakness in the nations housing markets and for residential construction.

In particular, housing permits, the report most leading of indicators, again indicates substantial weakness in future construction activity both nationally and across every reported region.

As predicted, housing completions are now declining significantly on a year-over-year basis indicating that the contraction in construction activity may soon be reflected by a substantial drop-off in construction related jobs as older projects reach completion and newer projects start at a far slower pace.

Now, we are well within the period in which permits and starts began to show significant weakness last year so the current double-digit year-over-year declines to those measures unequivocally indicate that the housing market has not yet stabilized.

Here are the statistics outlined in today’s report:

Housing Permits

Nationally

  • Single family housing permits up 1.4% from February, down 28.4% as compared to March 2006
Regionally

  • For the Northeast, single family housing up 1.3% from February, down 35.7% as compared to March 2006.
  • For the West, single family housing permits up 2.1% from February, down 22.7% as compared to March 2006.
  • For the Midwest, single family housing permits up 19.5% from February, down 29.1% as compared to March 2006.
  • For the South, single family housing permits down 3.6% from February, down 29.6% compared to March 2006.
Housing Starts

Nationally

  • Single family housing starts up 2.0% from February, down 24.6% as compared to March 2006.
Regionally

  • For the Northeast, single family housing starts down 7.8% from February, down 35.2% as compared to March 2006.
  • For the West, single family housing starts down 5.9% from February, down 26.7% as compared to March 2006.
  • For the Midwest, single family housing starts up 35.9% from February, down 17.2% as compared to March 2006.
  • For the South, single family housing starts down 0.5% from February, down 24.1% as compared to March 2006.
Housing Completions

Nationally

  • Single family housing completions up 1.5% from February, down 28.9% as compared to March 2006.
Regionally

  • For the Northeast, single family housing completions down 16.2% from February, down 35.8% as compared to March 2006.
  • For the West, single family housing completions up 17.8% from February, down 28.3% as compared to March 2006.
  • For the Midwest, single family housing completions up 7.6% from February, down 36.0% as compared to March 2006.
  • For the South, single family housing completions down 3.8% from February, down 25.9% as compared to March 2006.
Keep in mind that this particular report does NOT factor in the cancellations that have been widely reported to be occurring in new construction.

Monday, April 09, 2007

Mozilo’s Island

Given the relative strength shown by Countrywide Financial (NYSY:CFC) throughout some of the worst initial tumult of the subprime meltdown, one wonders whether CEO Angelo Mozilo can continue to maintain his island paradise or whether it will buckle under the strain leaving him looking more like Herve Villechaize stamping angrily from the shores of Lilliput.

This month may mark a bit of a turning point for Countrywide as it faces two significant challenges to its buoyancy.

First, on Thursday afternoon, it was reported that a lawyer representing The Louisiana Municipal Police Employees Retirement System, a Countrywide Financial shareholder, successfully argued for the right to move forward on an options backdating probe that will see an additional trial for the Countrywide “books and records” on April 18.

To be fair, it appears that the The Louisiana Municipal Police Employees Retirement System is a fairly active shareholder, suing a whole host of other public companies for various indiscretions including options backdating.

Furthermore, on April 26, Countrywide will release its first quarter 2007 earnings and host a conference call to review the results.

The results are particularly important as it will shed some additional light on the extent to which Countrywide has been impacted by the subprime meltdown as well as the even more important spillover effects on their “pseudo-prime” business.

As a possible harbinger of things to come for Countrywide, competitor American Home Mortgage reduced their expectations for first quarter results in a pre-announcement last Friday citing significant pressure coming from their Alt-A loans.

“A disproportionate share of the Company's non-performing loans are repurchased Alternate "A" loans. The Company has ceased offering those types of Alternate "A" loans that have resulted in a high proportion of its repurchases, and consequently believes the portion of delinquency related charge resulting from repurchases will diminish toward year-end.”


Friday, March 23, 2007

Senators and the Subprime Implosion

Yesterday, the Senate Banking Committee held a hearing titled “Mortgage Market Turmoil: Causes and Consequences” on the topic of the mortgage meltdown.

The hearing presented two panels of witnesses which included government regulators, lending industry representatives, as well as affected consumers.

Opening the hearing, the committee chairman, Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT) offered a generally accurate, yet slightly disingenuous account of the evolution of the easy lending era in the US which was then followed by a round of opening statements from the other committee members.

During these statements there was an unusual amount of Greenspan bashing, placing a substantial amount of the blame on the former Federal Reserve Chairman’s shoulders.

“In February 2004, the leadership at the Federal Reserve Board seemed to encourage the use of adjustable rate mortgages that today are defaulting and going into foreclosure at record rates. The then chairman of the Fed said in his speech to the National Credit Union Administration, and I quote him ‘American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed rate mortgage.’ … In my view these actions set the conditions for almost a perfect storm that is sweeping over millions of American homeowners today.” said Dodd in his opening statement.

“I’m amazed, sitting here, listening to all of our colleagues on this committee and forgetting who used to come here before this committee and brag about the housing market carrying the economy. None other than our former Chairman the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan. And he was in charge of bank regulation at the time that all these kind of sophisticated mortgages came into being. And I didn’t hear him say a word about those when he was here. And now I hear him criticizing everybody that’s in the business of lending. … I think if your going to criticize, and watch a bubble burst, as he did not only in the housing market but in the market prior to that where he predicted the dot-com downfall before it came, I think you ought to at least take some of the responsibility on your shoulders for having it happen under your watch.” said Senator Mike Crapo (R-ID).

The first panel was exclusively allocated to government regulators including representatives from FDIC, the Office of Thrift Supervision, the Federal Reserve, and the Office of Comptroller of Currency.

The following are some notable quotes from the first panel’s opening statements:

“While liberalized underwriting standards allowed more borrowers to qualify for home loans, competitive pressures eventually lead to the abandonment of the two most fundamental tenants of sound lending, approving borrowers based on their ability to repay the loan according to it’s terms, not just at the introductory rate and providing borrowers with clear information to help them understand their loan transaction.” said Sandra Thompson Thompson Director of the Division of Supervision and Consumer Protection, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

“I want to emphasize that national banks are not dominant players in the subprime market. Last year, their share of all new subprime production was less than ten percent. We know of some subprime lenders that have abandoned their plans for a national bank charter rather than submit to the supervision of the OCC [NOTE: this is a reference to the recent filing and subsequent approval of the conversion of Countrywide Financial to a federal savings bank charter from a national bank in it’s successful effort to side-step the basic regulatory provisions related to non-traditional mortgage risk management proposed last September by both the OCC and the Federal Reserve]” said Emory Rushton Senior Deputy Comptroller and Chief National Bank examiner, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

The second panel was allocated to representatives from several lenders including Countrywide Financial, HSBC Finance Corporation, and WMC Mortgage a subsidiary of GE as well as several consumer advocates and consumers themselves.

The following are some notable quotes from the second panel’s opening statements:

“[on changes at WMC Mortgage] First, borrowers will be qualified on the fully indexed rate, second on new loans, prepayment penalties will expire 60 days prior to the first interest rate reset date, … third, WMC will not make loans based on stated income except in the case of borrowers who are self employed and then, only with the appropriate verification. Beyond what has been proposed in the guidance, WMC will continue its historic policy to not offer any option ARMs or products with negative amortization and going forward, we will begin to hold a portion of this loan portfolio on our own books.” said Laurent Bossard Bossard, Chief Executive Officer, WMC Mortgage.

“Countrywide is primarily a prime lender, as I’ve mentioned, 93% of our originations are to prime borrowers [NOTE: this is only true for the month of February 2007. Countrywide’s full year 2006 was closer to 10% subprime originations] … Cumulatively over the past 10 years, Countrywide originated almost 540,000 hybrid ARM loans and less than 20,000 less than 3.5% of those hybrid loans have gone through foreclosure.” said Sandy Samuels Samuels, Executive Managing Director, Countrywide Financial Corporation.

During the Q&A portion of the second panel the most notable exchange came from Senator Dodd and Sandy Samuels of Countrywide:

When asked by Senator Dodd about what the point of a “teaser rate” was, Samuels suggests.

Samuels: “It makes the loan affordable… ”

Dodd: “Yea but if it’s only for a year or so her [a consumer] circumstance is not going to change… if she’s 70 [years old] with a teaser rate, and [then] she’s 72 what’s her circumstances?”

Samuels: “If she makes the payment on time, for the period of those two years, her FICO score will go up and we will be able refinance her into a prime loan…. She’ll pay less because she would have gone from a subprime loan into a prime loan.”

For my money, the best testimony came from Consumer Attorney Irv Ackelsberg (which kicks in at 3 hours 24 minutes) Ackelsberg who states:

“What we are seeing, I believe, is a run away train that is only starting to gather speed. These recent foreclosures reflect large numbers of early payment defaults, that is, homeowners defaulting before the fixed rate periods on their loans expire and the adjustments kick in. We have yet to see the full effect of those adjustments. It is not unreasonable to predict as many as 5 million foreclosures over the course of the next several years, a number that represents one out of fifteen homeowners in this country.”

“But think it would be a really bad mistake for this committee to think that the problem can be solved by reining in the brokers, we have to understand that they are selling the products that the lenders want them to sell and the lenders themselves are selling the products that Wall Street has ordered. The ultimate consumer here is not the homeowner. There’s no real market demand for being ripped off. The real market is on Wall Street, for bond securities. And the broker and the lender and everybody else in between is part of a factory that’s producing bond securities for Wall Street. That’s the real market, and that’s the real culprit.”

The entire hearing can be viewed here in Real Audio format.

Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to capture the feed as a Windows Media file so I can’t add it to BNN. If anyone knows of a reliable RM to WMV conversion utility, I would greatly appreciate the information.


Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales: February 2007

So, it appears that last month’s optimistic market “rebound” sentiment was short lived.

As I had noted last month, the Northeast had experienced exceptionally warm weather in January most likely resulting in an increase in the number of days suitable for home sales when compared to an average January.

This inevitably resulted in a bump up in residential real estate activity, noticeably affecting indicators from home sales to residential construction permits.

The weather in February, on the other hand, was far more typical for winter in the Northeast with a few snow storms and lots of bitter cold days pushing single family homes sales 12.2% below January’s results and holding reasonably flat compared to the February 2006 results.

These results become even more interesting when you consider that the February’s slower sales came even as the median home price declined 4.4% from January and 4.1% as compared to February 2006.

Additionally, although February registered a 17% decrease to inventory of residential properties (single family and condos combined… unfortunately MAR seems to no longer report the inventory and supply statistics separately) as compared to February 2006, there has been a 15% increase to the number of months supply since January indicating again that the sales pace is slowing.

In fact, the average number of “days on the market” now stands at 148 days compared to 115 days for February 2006.

It now appears that the Spring market may present a pretty ugly spectacle as I believe that inventory levels may significantly exceed last years results.

It appeared to me, at least anecdotally, that an unusually large number of listings were pulled from the market during the October-November timeframe, far more that I had witnessed in the fall of 2005.

In a matter of days, the number of listings had been more than halved in virtually every town inside 128.

Those listings have yet to resurface and, although this is the typical pattern seen during this time of year, I believe that, in the face of an uncertain housing market, sellers that got stuck with stale listings last year are attempting to time their listings to a greater extent than has been seen in past seasons.

Don’t forget to use the Inventory Tracking Tool If you would like to get a “bead” on inventory.

It’s still fairly basic, but now that I have nearly a years worth of data captured, Ill soon add some more advanced analytical functionality.

Finally, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston recently released a paper titled “Understanding Foreclosures in Massachusetts” within which the authors discuss at length the sudden increase in foreclose rates seen recently.

Massachusetts has now exceeded New England’s average for foreclosure rates and is quickly closing in on the national average as well.

The paper attributes this increase to both an increase in the use of risky loan products as well as the decline of the housing market.

“Since the 1990s, products featuring changing monthly payments have grown increasingly popular. These can include adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), where monthly interest rates and payments size are linked to some index, such as the prime rate; or products with features like “teaser rates” where initial interest rates are low, but are set to increase after fixed time periods. While some ARMs are structured to have only moderate shifts in monthly payments, some have dramatic increases, often occurring a fairly short time after origination.”

“The weakening housing market has likely played a strong role in the recent foreclosure increase. Since 2004, rates of housing price appreciation in Massachusetts and New England have slowed dramatically, and by some estimates, property values have declined.”

The following is one interesting chart (click for larger version) from the paper that shows how in 2003, when affordability really hit the wall, the percentage of market share of traditional fixed rate loans dropped nearly 15% from their 5 year average while prime ARMs and subprime products simultaneously picked up that 15% slack. This resulted in roughly 30% of all loans being either a prime ARM or subprime product.



As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current market trend.

February’s Key Statistics:

  • Single family sales declined 12.2% from January and increased 1.2% as compared to February 2006
  • Single family median price declined 4.4% from January and declined 4.1% as compared to February 2006
  • Condo sales declined 0.6% from January and increased 4.5% as compared to February 2006
  • Condo Median Price increased 0.7% from January and declined 1.8% as compared to February 2006
  • The number of months supply of residential properties stands at 12.3 months.
  • The “days on market” for residential properties stands at 148 days.

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

New Residential Construction Report: February 2007

Popularly reported as showing a “bounce back” to housing starts, today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to indicate significant weakness in the nations housing markets and for residential construction.

Although it’s a widely held belief that the best selling season is the spring, leading some to look for signs of strength later the year, it may be that this report is showing us the best numbers we are going to see for residential construction in 2007.

As Bob Toll recently recounted, the period between January and Presidents day weekend is considered the “hot” selling season in the new home market and by his account this year was a “bust”.

“Well the Spring selling season is over, it’s a misunderstanding that we have been unable to correct over the past 40 years. In the new home business, you start selling immediately after the holidays.. it increases in number and then there’s a pretty substantial jump right after the Super Bowl because ‘she’ hasn’t been able to get ‘him’ out of the seat to go and see the product on Sunday, which is our big day, then you continue to run-up from after the Super Bowl to Presidents Day weekend… That’s the peak of the market… We have had this substantial jump from the December sales into January, we had this substantial jump from January into February but that jump cam no where near on a per-community basis to what it’s been on an average over the past 10 years.”

Today’s report shows permits and starts down high double-digits both nationally and in every region with completions now accelerating to the downside as had been widely speculated.

In fact, the report shows that completions from January as well as on a year-over-year basis are now declining in every region with particularly steep declines as compared to February 2006.

Further significant declines from here on out would unequivocally indicate that the housing market has not yet stabilized.

Here are the statistics outlined in today’s report:

Housing Permits

Nationally

  • Single family housing permits down 3.1% from January, down 32.9% as compared to February 2006
Regionally

  • For the Northeast, single family housing down 23.8% from January, down 38.9% as compared to February 2006.
  • For the West, single family housing permits up 4% from January, down 30.0% as compared to February 2006.
  • For the Midwest, single family housing permits down 16.9% from January, down 43.2% as compared to February 2006.
  • For the South, single family housing permits up 1.4% from January, down 30.3% compared to February 2006.
Housing Starts

Nationally

  • Single family housing starts up 10.3% from January, down 32.7% as compared to February 2006.
Regionally

  • For the Northeast, single family housing starts down 26.0% from January, down 37.2% as compared to February 2006.
  • For the West, single family housing starts up 37.4% from January, down 35.9% as compared to February 2006.
  • For the Midwest, single family housing starts down 19.3% from January, down 52.3% as compared to February 2006.
  • For the South, single family housing starts up 16.4% from January, down 23.5% as compared to February 2006.
Housing Completions

Nationally

  • Single family housing completions down 11.3% from January, down 23.1% as compared to February 2006.
Regionally

  • For the Northeast, single family housing completions down 24.1% from January, down 16.4% as compared to February 2006.
  • For the West, single family housing completions down 10.9% from January, down 38.0% as compared to February 2006.
  • For the Midwest, single family housing completions down 20.4% from January, down 36.4% as compared to February 2006.
  • For the South, single family housing completions down 6.6% from January, down 11.5% as compared to February 2006.
Keep in mind that this particular report does NOT factor in the cancellations that have been widely reported to be occurring in new construction.

Monday, March 19, 2007

Charting the Bubble (Slight Return)



Last year, I released the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFEHO) Home Price Index Charting Tool that allowed users to mix and compare home price data from any number of over 400 statistical regions on the same chart.

Today, I’ve released the S&P/Case-Shiller Charting Tool which complements the OFHEO tool, allowing you to compare home price data from any number of the 22 different metropolitan and composite statistical series currently supported by Standard & Poor’s.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, which is published monthly under agreements between Standard & Poor’s, Fiserv, and MacroMarkets LLC, provide a “reliable and consistent of housing prices in the United States.”

The “repeat sales” methodology used to calculate the indices was developed in the 1980’s by Professors Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller and is highly regarded by financial institutions.

In fact, it provides the basis of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) housing marketplace that has emerged over the last year.

The following excerpt taken from a CME Housing Market FAQ explains why the S&P/Case-Shiller is more accurate than both the National Association of Realtors (NAR) index as well as the OFHEO index:

There are two other major housing indexes: the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Indexes and the Office of Federal Housing Oversight (OFHEO) Indexes.

The NAR Indexes quote median values without recourse to a repeat sales methodology, which creates a significant potential for bias.

The OFHEO indexes do utilize a repeat sales methodology but are confined to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conforming mortgages, which are skewed to the lower end of the housing market.

This is a significant issue because only approximately one-sixth of housing in California is sold with a conforming mortgage. OFHEO indexes also utilize appraisal data to supplement their samples, which creates the possibility of bias that reflects the interests of those who are paying for the appraisal.

However, as all three indexes generally track the same phenomenon they are likely to move more or less in parallel.

So, what is the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices currently telling us?

Most of the country’s major metropolitan areas are registering significant declines after having experienced an unprecedented run-up in the last 10 years.

As Professor Shiller put it recently on CNBC:

“We are just emerging from the biggest housing boom in the history of this nation. It’s been driven by unrealistic expectations.”

Take a look at virtually any of the statistical areas and you will see roughly the same patter of huge surge, especially after 2000, followed by an abrupt rounded turn around in 2006.

The following are charts for some of the bubbliest markets:










NOTE TO FELLOW BLOGGERS – WEBMASTERS:

Both the OFHEO HPI Tool and the S&P/Case Shiller Tool now support two ways of dynamically linking so that you can integrate the charts into your blog or website.

You can link directly to the tool by simply building out the chart with the data your interested in, and then copying the URL link from the address bar of your browser and including it in your site.

Alternatively, if you would like to actually “embed” a dynamic chart (as I have done above… the chart view will actually automatically update when I update the data every month) into you blog or website do the following:

  • Build out a view of the chart with the data your interested in.
  • In the address bar of your browser, add the following to the URL: &width=300&height=300&ext=.jpg
  • In your web page, add an image tag with this URL set as the src.
Now, when your page is fetched, this “dynamic” image is fetched as well and the chart will always remain “up-to-date”.

Also, you can choose your preferred image size by adjusting the height and width and image format by specifying either .jpg, .gif or .png.

As usual, let me know if you have any issues or comments on both tools.

Sunday, March 18, 2007

Zero Down at Countrywide

A couple of weeks ago, when in the initial malaise of the sub-prime meltdown was just settling over the nation, Countrywide Financial appeared to scramble to take some action that might allay the fears of an increasingly volatile market.

Then came a widely publicized account of an “urgent” email which specified that Countrywide brokers were to no longer provide any 100% financing deals as of March 12.

"Please get in any deals over 95 LTV (loan-to-value) today!... Countrywide BC will no longer be offering any 100 LTV products as of Monday, March 12."

At first glance, this was a fairly positive development for the company as most would easily agree that lending first time home buyers 100% of their purchase price was probably a bit too risky let alone lending it to buyers with sketchy credit histories.

But still, it seemed a bit light on substance given that home buyers, even ones with sub-prime credit quality or low to no verified income, could still borrow 95% of the purchase price of their home, not to mention that there was never an official follow up release from the company substantiating the changes.

Either way, the traditional media ran with the news of the changes and fact or fiction, company stunt or legitimate development, it eventually made it's way onto CNBC and into the Wall Street Journal.

Then a few days ago, I managed to get my hands on a few Countrywide BC rate sheets dated March 12th as well as several underwriting matrices and was quickly able to arrive at the truth behind the reported changes.

First, although Countrywide may have limited the availability of their 100% LTV products, they did NOT eliminated them entirely.

In fact, 100% financing is still an option, allowing “full documentation” borrowers with credit scores of 620 or better to borrow up to $1 million using either a 100% or 80%-20% product.

Borrowers with credit scores as low as 580 can receive 95% financing allowing them to borrow up to $550,000 and even “no-doc” borrowers with credit scores of 640 or better are eligible for 95% LTV loans of up to $600,000.

Finally, Countrywide is still offering these loan products in the form of risky “interest only” option ARMs as well as continuing to serve borrowers who are “out of bankruptcy less than a year” as one of their ads had promoted.

All in all, I’d say not much has changed over at Countrywide and although their CEO Angelo Mozilo has gone to great lengths recently to assure the markets that they were operating in a sound manner, you would be hard pressed to tell that from their underwriting guidelines.

So, was this a surprise?

Truthfully, given the state of affairs that has been unfolding in the last month, I was a bit surprised… that is, until I read the following press release titled “Countrywide Home Loans Assures Homeowners and Home Buyers That They Still Have Many Mortgage Loan Choices” published late Friday evening.

Here is the most pertinent excerpt:

"We want to assure homeowners that there is still an extensive selection of mortgage loans to suit a multitude of personal and financial circumstances," said Tom Hunt, managing director of Countrywide Home Loans. "We recognize it's been widely reported that some major lenders, like Countrywide, no longer offer 100% financing. In fact, we have made changes to certain subprime and other special mortgage programs, but we have not eliminated 100% financing. We still offer one of the widest selections of low- and no-downpayment options to qualified customers, including those with less-than-perfect credit."

So, it appears that Mozilo may have summed it up best when he told Maria Bartiromo of CNBC the following:

“There’s been a rush to judgment, an overreaction, a baby out with the bathwater… “