Monday, October 23, 2006

Massachusetts Housing Poised for Collapse?

Massachusetts is now poised for the greatest yearly sales drop of single family homes in at least the 17 years that sales have been charted by the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

Wow! Massachusetts is looking so consistently awful it’s hard to imagine anything other than a complete “reversion to the mean” occurring now.

Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors reported that for September, single family home sales slipped an astounding 24% as compared to September of 2005.

This brings the current year’s total of single family home sales to only 32,000, well below the 37,740 total for the first 9 months 2005.

As you can see, Massachusetts is headed for roughly 41,800 total single family home sales for 2006 or a decline of 14.1% as compared to the total yearly sales set in 2005. Note, that this estimate includes a fairly optimistic projection of only a 10% sales decline for the months of October through December.

The following chart demonstrates what this drop off would look like in the context of single family home sales since 1990. Click on it for a larger, more readable version.

Again, like last month, we have to keep in mind that we are coming off of an historic run-up in home prices fueled by the frantic speculative madness that had captivated our area for almost ten years.

As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by for an even more accurate "real" view of the current market trend.

Key Statistics for September 2006

  • Single Family Sales Down 23.9% as compared to September 2005
  • Single Family Median Price Down 5.3% as compared to September 2005
  • Condo Sales Down 27.8% as compared to September 2005
  • Condo Median Price stays flat at 0.0% as compared to September 2005
  • Inventory of single family homes have risen for 19 consecutive months and now stands at 43,227 units listed on the market through MLS. This represents 12.6 months of supply.
  • Single Family average “Days on Market” stands at 124 days in August as compared to 85 days for September 2005
  • Condo average “Days on Market” stands at 114 days in August as compared to 74 days for September 2005
Key Facts

  • September marks the Sixth (MAR), (ninth per The Warren Group) consecutive month of declining sales.
  • Boston leads the nation in price reductions with 46.4% of homes listed on the MLS having been reduced.
  • Residential housing (homes and condos) inventory has increased 12.8% over the past 12 months.

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