Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – October 15 2008

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage jumped 48 basis points since last week to 6.47% while the purchase application volume decreased 0.3% and the refinance application volume increased 12.5% compared to last week’s results.

It’s important to note that, in the wake of the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the average interest rate on an 80% LTV 30 year fixed rate loan initially dropped significantly but has since climbed to the high end of the range seen throughout 2007.

NOTE: With this release the MBAA significantly revised its estimate of the interest rate for an 80% LTV 1 year ARM loan running back to June 2008.

The folks at the MBAA were nice enough to email me the revisions which I have incorporated into the current charts.

As you can see, the revisions brought down a bit but yet a large spread has been maintained between the average rate on a 30 fixed and a 1 year ARM.

The following chart shows how the principle and interest cost and estimated annual income required to cover the PITI (using the 29% “rule of thumb”) on a $400,000 loan has changed since November 2006.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages over the last number of weeks (click for larger version).

The following charts show the Purchase Index, Refinance Index and Market Composite Index since November 2006 (click for larger versions).