Monday, December 28, 2009

More Pain, Less Gain: S&P/Case-Shiller Preview for October 2009

As I demonstrated in prior posts, given their strong correlation (r-squared generally over .90 for each market), the home price indices provided daily by Radar Logic, averaged monthly, can effectively be used as a preview of the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.

The current Radar Logic 25 MSA data reported on residential real estate transactions (condos, multi and single family homes) that settled as late as October 26 is indicating that the price bounce seen as a result of the government housing tax credit peaked in August and is now in decline.

Further, although the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 series has reported six consecutive monthly increases, the RPX 25 is giving a clear indication that the October results will likely decline on a month-to-month basis.