Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Production Pullback: Industrial Production May 2009

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing a further continuation of the simply stunning declines to the aggregate production and widespread declines across many industries, particularly those related to consumer spending, construction and autos, resulting in the largest year-over-year decline seen during this period of 13.41% as compared to May 2008 and a whopping 1.13% decline since just this April.

“Final product” consumer durable goods continue to show weakness falling 22.89% as an aggregate on a year-over-year basis, with particularly significant declines coming specifically from home appliances, furniture and carpeting which declined by 20.68% on a year-over-year basis.

Construction supply production has been showing the most severe contraction seen in at least the last 20 years with wood products falling 21.51% on a year-over-year basis.

Although automotive production has been showing weakness since the middle of 2004, business vehicle production is now showing a stark contraction.

Finally, HVAC (heating ventilation and air conditioning) appears to be firmly reflecting the substantial pullback in fixed commercial investment falling a stunning 23.75% on a year-over-year basis.

The following charts (click for larger) show the overall consumer durable component along with the Home Appliances, Furniture and Carpeting sub-component on both a time series and year-over-year basis, construction supply production with the wood products sub-component, and general and business related vehicle production all overlaid with the last two recessions for comparisons purposes.