Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Seasonal Cycles Up-Market and Down

The Radar Logic RPX Home Price data series are not only accurate but they are exceptional at reflecting with great precision and clarity the effect seasonality has on residential home pricing as well as the subtle variations in seasonality from region to region.

Probably the country’s most seasonal housing market with regularly tracked data is the Boston metro market which typically shows (up market and down…) a very regular fluctuation in prices from the highs in June to the lows in February.

It’s important to consider how these striking oscillations of price are both created from the buying activity BUT also affect the buyer behavior.

In the Boston area, the springtime seasonal competition for quality housing is palpable … even in down market years… but the larger cycle of the overarching multi-year declining trend… is not nearly as obvious.

The following chart (click for super-cool dynamic zoom-able chart) shows the 1, 7 and 28 day aggregates for the Boston metro area... the typical seasonal bounce has begun but will inevitably relent to the larger declining trend come September.